Elections after the Victory: what can change

After the Victory, we all have a lot of work to do to restore the country and...elections. Due to the consequences of a full-scale war, it will be very difficult to conduct them. Some changes may await Ukrainians, both those who will elect and those who will be elected. We will describe what the Central Election Commission (hereinafter CEC or the Commission – ed.) proposes to change in order to improve the conduct of elections in post-war Ukraine.

Elections that did not take place and real threats

Elections and referenda are prohibited during martial law in Ukraine.

Because of this, on February 24, the CEC stopped all ongoing election processes. We are talking about the election of one Member of Parliament (206 district, Chernihiv region); 9 village, settlement, city heads; re-election of 1 village head; repeat and interim elections of deputies to 69 local councils for 126 vacant mandates.

Unfortunately, the Commission records cases of deaths and disappearances of deputies, mayors of cities and village heads. And some leaders became collaborators. Thus, the need for early elections of different types grows with each day of the war.

Also, last year in 2022 there were grounds for holding elections for 3 more Members of Ukrainian Parliament (by-elections).

According to the Constitutions, elections of deputies to the Verkhovna Rada should be held in 2023, for the President of Ukraine in March 2024, and the next local elections in October 2025.

It is quite obvious that many elections await us after our Victory. But post-war realities can significantly complicate their organization and implementation.

Our task now is to prepare for the country's most difficult votes, which are waiting ahead.

What is the difficulty?

First of all, it is the movement of millions of Ukrainians within the country and abroad.

We must create the maximum possible conditions for our citizens to exercise their right to vote and be elected.

Secondly, the infrastructure is completely or partially destroyed. And this, in particular, is the lack of premises for the work of election commissions and voting.

Thirdly, there is a need for proper registration of citizens and the creation of conditions for the formation of accurate voter lists.

Since February 24, the State Register of Voters has been closed and is not updated. From the point of view of voter registration, an even bigger problem is the lack of registration of all those migration processes that are ongoing both in Ukraine and abroad. Thus, now we do not understand where our voters are. In addition, after the victory, migration processes will continue.

"Legitimate power is formed through fair elections. We will feel this bond even more strongly after the victory, since the need for justice has skyrocketed.

Now it is important for the CEC to identify the maximum number of challenges for the organization of post-war elections in order to be able to prepare as best as possible to overcome them.

Our proposals for improving the legislation – this is not the finish line, it is only a start to prepare a renewed foundation for the election processes after the victory", – noted the Chairman of the CEC Oleh Didenko.

Additional precincts and updating voter lists

It is obvious that the large-scale movement of Ukrainians within the country and abroad will create challenges for the administration of election processes that the CEC has not faced yet. One of the solutions proposed by the Commission is formation of additional polling stations in Ukraine and abroad.

Within the country, at national elections, such precincts can be formed, if necessary, in places of compact residence of temporarily displaced persons: in towns made of prefabricated modules, dormitories, health camps, etc.

It is also worth making it possible to organize elections in temporary structures (military tents, light structures, etc.).

In order to ensure the right to vote for everyone, firstly, Ukrainians must be on the voter lists, secondly, they must know exactly where they are included in these lists, and also have access to this polling station. This is the only way to get a ballot paper and vote.

Due to the full-scale war, temporary occupation of territories, large-scale displacement of Ukrainians, traditionally low rates of registration of citizens by actual place of residence, high-quality registration of voters and the creation of conditions for the formation of accurate voter lists have become a huge challenge. The issue of updating voter information on voters whose election addresses are in regions under temporary occupation since 2014 will be extremely serious.

Two days to vote abroad

Another (not new) problem is voting at foreign polling stations. This topic was often discussed by the expert environment, mass media and the public.

The main reasons for the low turnout in elections abroad have always been the limited number of polling stations and difficult logistics for the voter.

To vote in a foreign country (especially a large one), a person often needs to travel hundreds of kilometers, spending time and money. And then there is also the possibility of standing in long queues due to the low capacity of polling stations (tens or even hundreds of thousands of voters can be assigned to one foreign polling station, while in Ukraine – no more than 2.5 thousand).

Obviously, during the next elections, there will be significantly more Ukrainian voters abroad than there were before, and therefore the problem will become more severe.

Earlier, the Commission already discussed the possibility of 2-day voting (on Saturday and Sunday). According to the Constitution, regular elections to the VRU take place on the last Sunday of October, and regular presidential elections take place on the last Sunday of March. Thus, voting on a day other than Sunday can be considered a violation of constitutional provisions.

On the other hand, the election date is not always final for voting. For example, there is a day of repeated voting in the presidential elections of Ukraine.

The proposal for 2-day voting, as well as other options for expanding the possibility of voting abroad, need to be widely discussed in order to ensure the accessibility of overseas polling stations to as many of our citizens as possible. The Verkhovna Rada will make the final decision.

Clean reputation of observers

In order for the election institution to work properly, the election process itself must be legal, fair, transparent and impartial, and the election results must correspond to the real will of the people, be trustworthy and ensure the legitimacy of the government, in particular the international one.

One of the tools that should ensure these goals through oversight is the institute of international observers. At the same time, the war has been going on in Ukraine since 2014.

Under such conditions, it is important to take measures so that the international observer status is not purposefully used by aggressor countries to the detriment of national security. It is about carrying out intelligence and sabotage activities, interfering in the election process: spreading pro-Russian narratives, disinformation, other actions aimed at undermining trust in the elections, etc.

The CEC proposes to discuss additional requirements for official observers. For example, an observer should not be a person to whom sanctions have been applied or who does not meet the conditions of entry into Ukraine.

The conclusion is "dangerous": who and how can determine the security conditions for holding elections?

Based on the experience of certain territories of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, the Commission does not rule out that the situation in certain territories of Ukraine after the termination/cancellation of martial law can stay tense.

Do you remember the situation with the non-holding of local elections in 18 territorial communities of Donetsk and Luhansk regions that are close to the demarcation line due to the security situation? At that time, many criticisms were also directed at the CEC for not holding these elections. At the same time, the Commission is not a specialized law enforcement body and cannot independently determine the level of adequate security and terrorist threat during the organization and conduct of elections.

That time the CEC applied trice to the Donetsk and Luhansk Military-Civil Administrations (MCA) for their conclusions regarding the possibility of holding elections in these 18 communities and trice received answers about the impossibility of holding them due to the security situation. The 2020 local elections never took place in these territories.

A clear legislative rule might eliminate the dispute in this circumstance.

It is essential to set precise criteria and methods at the legislative level for proving the difficulty of calling and conducting elections in specific territories and polling stations.

International experts and public society endorse the proposal to delegate decision-making authority over the difficulty of voting/elections in particular regions to Ukraine's National Security and Defense Council.

Considering all of the challenges and potential concerns that have previously been highlighted, it is probable that the conditions for deciding on calling for extraordinary, intermediate, and repeat elections will alter as well.

Today, such a decision (on calling for elections, preparations for which have stopped or not started due to the introduction of martial law) shall be made within a month after the termination/cancellation of martial law.

The necessity to prolong the periods is largely due to the enormous number of internally displaced individuals and Ukrainian citizens who have fled to other countries.

Voters must have adequate time to return to their territorial communities to ensure universal suffrage in local elections.

Furthermore, the date of post-war elections will be influenced by the requirement to assess the real need for their financing (the current cost of goods and services cannot be predicted in advance).

Separately, it is worth considering the timing of elections in the territories of Ukraine, which have been temporarily occupied since 2014 (Autonomous Republic of Crimea, temporary occupied by Russia territories of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts in Ukraine). After the liberation and before elections are held in these territories, the process of their reintegration must take place: the restoration of the state authorities of Ukraine, law enforcement agencies, courts, the banking system, the activities of local organizations of political parties, public organizations, mass media, and in general – must be created conditions for the free formation and expression of the will of voters.

"The future holding of elections largely depends on security factors. Elections are not an aim in itself; we must strike a balance between forming elected bodies of state authority and local self-government as soon as feasible and setting proper circumstances for their holding", – emphasizes Commission Chairman Oleр Didenko.

All issues were addressed in the CEC's proposals for legislative amendments. (Decision of the CEC dated September 27, 2022 No. 102). The proposed bill is already in the Verkhovna Rada's Committee on the Organization of State Power, Local Self-Government, Regional Development, and Urban Planning.

For the CEC, it is important that the post-war elections are not just held. Despite all the devastating consequences of the war, they should continue the long-term steps on the path of democratic development and focus on the best international practices and standards.

And, of course, the first elections after the victory and all subsequent ones will take place thanks to the defense forces of Ukraine. It depends only on them when the elections will be held.