Michael Kofman: "Worst-case scenario didn't come true, but in 2025 Ukraine is in a difficult situation"
"The worst-case scenarios for 2024 didn't take place, the front didn't collapse. There wasn't a major Russian breakthrough anywhere along the front line. The Russian military wasn't able to take any of the most significant cities. Some of the Russian offensive like the Kharkiv offensive, failed visibly. We still don't know how the winter will turn out. And looking at Ukrainian critical infrastructure because there's still quite a bit of winter to go. But so far, it's also not been the worst-case scenario when we look at the damage Russia inflicted on Ukraine's power generation capacity.
On the other hand, I do think that the year very much went in the wrong direction. And I think the war's been on a negative trajectory since about the fall of 2023, to be honest with you. I think the best-case scenarios didn't take place either," said the guest of the new episode of the (Un)Safe Country podcast.
But I think we're entering 2025 with Ukraine in a very difficult position. There are some very glaring structural issues in terms of Ukraine's manpower, mobilization, and force management decisions that were made last year, that could have been a lot better. And if we look at the overall funding situation and prospects for sustained Western support, Ukraine certainly faces an uncertain future this year."
What scenarios might unfold in Ukraine in 2025, and which of last year's forecasts have come true?
In the new episode of (un)Safe Country podcast, its permanent host Alina Frolova speaks with a military analyst Michael Kofman, senior fellow at the Russia and Eurasia Program of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. The conversation covers the current situation in Ukraine and the state of the Russian military, potential negotiations, Moskov’s position and security guarantees for Ukraine, the economic situation in Russia and its impact on ending the war, as well as possible scenarios for 2025.
(un)Safe Country
(Un)Safe Country is a joint podcast of the Centre for Defence Strategies, Media Centre Ukraine and Ukrayinska Pravda. The host of the podcast, Alina Frolova, is a diplomat with a degree in geopolitics. She worked as a Deputy Minister of Defence. She coordinated cooperation with partners and NATO. She was involved in reforms in the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
She was responsible for the security of the Black Sea and took an active part in the establishment of the Crimea Platform. She is currently one of the leaders of the Centre for Defence Strategies. In the podcast, she will invite interesting interlocutors, military and civilian, experts and volunteers, Ukrainian and foreign, with whom she will discuss security issues and how to bring victory in the war with Russia closer.
