ISW: Ceasefire agreement must include reliable monitoring mechanisms

Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have pointed out the need for reliable monitoring mechanisms in the event of a ceasefire or peace agreement in Ukraine, and it is not yet clear what mechanisms for such monitoring the West can offer.

Source: ISW

Details: Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that the ongoing US-Russian talks are unlikely to yield lightning-fast results despite US President Donald Trump's stated goal of reaching a general ceasefire and a lasting peace agreement in Ukraine in the near future.

In addition, Russian Foreign Ministry official Alexei Polishchuk said in an interview that Russia is ready to participate in negotiations that supposedly take into account the current realities of the war and address the root causes of Russia's war against Ukraine.

Quote: "Peskov's and Polishchuk's comments also reflect the Kremlin's continued rejection of President Trump's stated approach of first establishing a ceasefire and then negotiating a broader peace agreement and the Kremlin's commitment to war aims that are incompatible with President Trump’s goal of achieving a lasting peace in Ukraine."

Details: Analysts noted that any potential ceasefire or peace agreement must include robust monitoring mechanisms, given the Kremlin's continued efforts to portray Ukraine as violating the ceasefire on energy infrastructure without providing evidence of these strikes and despite the lack of public details on the terms of the ceasefire.

Quote: "It remains unclear what monitoring mechanisms the West could leverage to enforce and monitor a future general ceasefire or if the Kremlin would accept any such mechanisms."

More details: On 13 April, Peskov and Polishchuk reiterated Russia's constant claims that Ukraine had violated the temporary moratorium on long-range strikes on energy infrastructure.

Quote: "Russian officials appear to be weaponising the vague conditions of the ceasefire and exploiting the absence of independent monitoring mechanisms to flood the information space with unsubstantiated claims about supposed Ukrainian ceasefire violations."

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 13 April:

• Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said that ongoing US-Russian negotiations are unlikely to result in "lightning-fast results," contrary to US President Donald Trump's stated objective of achieving a general ceasefire and lasting peace agreement in Ukraine in the near future.
• Any future general ceasefire or peace agreement must include robust monitoring mechanisms, given the Kremlin's ongoing efforts to portray Ukraine as violating the long-range energy infrastructure strikes ceasefire without providing evidence of these strikes and despite the lack of public details about the ceasefire’s terms. It remains unclear what monitoring mechanisms the West could leverage to enforce and monitor a future general ceasefire or if the Kremlin would accept any such mechanisms.
• Russian forces conducted a devastating ballistic missile strike against the city of Sumy on 13 April, causing more than 100 casualties.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Toretsk and Russian forces recently advanced near Kharkiv, Borova and Chasiv Yar.

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