Lithuanian foreign minister: Russia offers three scenarios – war, threat or occupation

During his visit to Kyiv, Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys has called for deterring Russia to avoid war with the Russian Federation or the potential occupation of the Baltic states.

Source: Budrys at a press conference on Tuesday 1 April with Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha, as reported by European Pravda

Details: When asked how Lithuania assesses the threat of a Russian attack or destabilisation attempt against it and how realistic such a scenario might be for the Baltic countries, Budrys said that NATO intelligence services had reached a consensus that Russia represents a long-term direct military threat to the Alliance.

He said this assessment was well-founded, citing Russian plans and military capabilities that are being developed and deployed in close proximity to NATO borders. He added that Russia had invested in these capabilities over decades and was clearly preparing for a long-term confrontation with NATO.

Budrys stated that Russia uses military force to achieve its political goals.

He explained that those political objectives were clear and that Putin had expressed them repeatedly – including his desire to see the US removed from Europe and to dominate the continent. Budrys said Putin did not want to see Lithuania thrive as a country.

The minister stressed that the Russian threat is real and long-term, and therefore deterrence is necessary, as Russia will remain a neighbour in the future.

He stated that there were three possible scenarios in relations with Russia: war, threat or occupation. To avoid the latter, it was essential to be in a position of deterrence; otherwise, one would find oneself in a state of war.

Budrys added that Lithuania viewed long-term support for Ukraine and its NATO membership as part of this deterrence strategy.

He also remarked that he had no illusions about the Russian regime or its intentions, regardless of what narratives it might offer about cooperation. He said Russia was not interested in partnership – it wanted territory and aimed to subjugate its neighbours. Budrys concluded that this was the reality Lithuania faced, and Ukrainians understood it better than anyone.

Background:

• Media outlets have previously reported growing concern in the Baltic states over the possibility of a ceasefire in Ukraine.
• A recent assessment by Germany’s Federal Intelligence Service (BND) and the Bundeswehr concluded that Russia views itself as being in a systemic conflict with the West and is preparing for a major war with NATO.

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