ISW: US, Ukraine and Russia unlikely to finalise ceasefire agreement in next three weeks

Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have said that the United States, Ukraine and Russia are unlikely to agree on the terms of a full ceasefire within the next three weeks.

Source: ISW

Details: US President Donald Trump has spoken of a "psychological deadline" for Putin to agree to a ceasefire.

Trump, answering a question about whether there is a deadline for Russian ruler Vladimir Putin to agree to a ceasefire, said that "it's a psychological deadline".

Trump added, "If I think they're [Russia – ed.] tapping us along, I will not be happy about it".

Finnish President Alexander Stubb said that during his meeting with Trump, he suggested 20 April as a potential deadline for a complete ceasefire.

Quote from the ISW: "Russia is unlikely to agree to a ‘full ceasefire without any conditions’ within three weeks given that Russia has demanded that the West provide some sanctions relief as a precondition for a temporary Black Sea ceasefire."

Details: The ISW analysts pointed out that on 25 March, the Kremlin said it would not implement the agreed ceasefire in the Black Sea until the United States lifted sanctions on the Russian state agricultural bank Rosselkhozbank and other financial institutions involved in international food and fertiliser trade. 

Bloomberg reported on 28 March that Russia was demanding that the European Union reconnect Rosselkhozbank to the SWIFT international banking system as a prerequisite for implementing the Black Sea Agreement.

Analysts stressed that Russia wanted to determine whether the United States would meet its demands and encourage European partners to support the easing of sanctions.

On 11 March, during talks in Saudi Arabia, Ukraine declared its readiness to introduce a 30-day ceasefire, provided that Russia also adheres to it.

Analysts added that Ukrainian and American officials continued to discuss the terms of the ceasefire for three weeks after 11 March.

In the analysts’ opinion, this indicated that the terms of the ceasefire had not yet been fully finalised.

Quote: "It is also unlikely that the United States, Ukraine, and Russia could negotiate the terms of a general ceasefire within the next three weeks."

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 31 March: 

• US President Donald Trump stated on 30 March that there is an unspecified "psychological deadline" for Russia to agree to a general ceasefire.   
• Russian officials continue efforts to undermine the proposed US-Ukrainian mineral deal by promoting potential US-Russian rare earth mining projects.
• The Kremlin continues efforts to sow division between the United States and Europe.
• Ukraine's European allies continue to provide financial and military aid to Ukraine.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Toretsk. Russian forces recently advanced in Kursk and Sumy oblasts and near Kupiansk, Kurakhove and Velyka Novosilka.
• Russia is reportedly struggling to restore what few tanks remain in its stocks.

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