Russia's federal budget deficit exceeds its Finance Ministry expectations

Russia’s federal budget recorded a deficit of RUB 3.8 trillion (approx. US$44.7 billion) in January–February 2025, surpassing the Finance Ministry’s earlier estimate of RUB 2.7 trillion (US$31.7 billion).

Source: Russia’s Federal Treasury, as reported by Russian outlet Interfax

Details: According to the Treasury, budget revenues for the first two months of 2025 totalled RUB 3.9 trillion (US$45.9 billion), compared to the Finance Ministry’s earlier estimate of RUB 5.3 trillion (US$62.3 billion). Expenditures stood at RUB 7.76 trillion (US$91.3 billion), slightly below the ministry’s estimate of RUB 8 trillion (US$94.1b billion).

The discrepancy in the budget execution data is mainly due to the Treasury’s report of more than RUB 1 trillion (US$11.7 billion) less in revenue compared to the Finance Ministry’s figures.

The Finance Ministry had warned that its preliminary revenue estimate included payments made to the unified tax account, which were attributed to federal budget revenue as of 1 March. Since the last working day for tax payments was Friday, 28 February, some payments may not have been processed by the end of the month and were instead reflected in March.

Background: Russia’s gas production continues to decline amid the halt in transit supplies to Europe via Ukraine.

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