NYT: Ukraine's 2023 counteroffensive focused on Melitopol, but General Syrskyi prioritised Bakhmut
The counteroffensive plan centred on the city of Melitopol in Zaporizhzhia Oblast was crucial for Ukraine. However, the strategy was changed when General Oleksandr Syrskyi, the then-Commander of Ukraine's Ground Forces, insisted on giving the war-torn town of Bakhmut in Donetsk Oblast priority, which ultimately led to disastrous results on both fronts.
Source: an article by The New York Times (NYT)
Details: The article noted that Valerii Zaluzhnyi, the then Commander-in-Chief of Ukraine's Armed Forces, and Kyiv's British partners supported directing the counteroffensive towards Melitopol. This manoeuvre, though ambitious, aimed to sever the land supply routes for Russian forces in Crimea.
Ultimately, the Ukrainian military command opted for a two-stage attack to mislead Russian commanders, who, according to US intelligence reports, assumed Ukraine had sufficient forces and equipment for only a single offensive.
The NYT article details how Zaluzhnyi, during a meeting of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief's Staff, decided that General Oleksandr Tarnavskyi would receive 12 brigades and the bulk of the ammunition for the main assault on Melitopol. Meanwhile, Lieutenant General Yurii Sodol would advance towards Mariupol, while Syrskyi would lead a supporting strike in the east near Bakhmut.
Quote: "Then General Syrskyi spoke. According to Ukrainian officials, the general said he wanted to break from the plan and execute a full-scale attack to drive the Russians from Bakhmut. He would then advance eastward toward Luhansk Oblast. He would, of course, need additional men and ammunition.
The Americans were not told the meeting's outcome. But then US intelligence observed Ukrainian troops and ammunition moving in directions inconsistent with the agreed-upon plan.
Soon after, at a hastily arranged meeting on the Polish border, General Zaluzhnyi admitted to Generals Cavoli and Aguto that the Ukrainians had in fact decided to mount assaults in three directions at once."
Details: According to Ukrainian officials, during the meeting, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy directed that Western-supplied weapons be divided evenly between Syrskyi and Tarnavskyi. Syrskyi was also assigned five of the newly trained brigades, leaving seven for the Battle of Melitopol.
General Sodol, who headed the Mariupol offensive, was eager to follow the advice of Lieutenant General Antonio Aguto, who had supported Ukraine during the counteroffensive. This cooperation resulted in one of the operation's most notable successes: after American intelligence spotted a vulnerability in Russian defences, Sodol's men recaptured more than 20 square kilometres of territory.
This success prompted Ukrainians to question whether the battle for Mariupol held greater promise than the offensive on Melitopol. However, the advance was halted due to a shortage of personnel.
The issue was clear on the battle map in General Aguto's office: Syrskyi's offensive on Bakhmut was depleting Ukraine's forces, the article notes.
Aguto pressed Syrskyi to divert brigades and munitions to the southern front in preparation for the assault on Melitopol. However, according to US and Ukrainian officials, Syrskyi refused to back down. He stood his ground even after Yevgeny Prigozhin, whose Wagner Private Military Company enabled Russia in taking Bakhmut, rebelled against Kremlin ruler Vladimir Putin and sent forces towards Moscow.
US intelligence anticipated that the revolt would undermine Russian morale and cohesion. Intercepted communications suggested that Russian commanders questioned why Ukraine was not putting more pressure on the lightly defended Melitopol, a US intelligence official said
But Syrskyi believed that the uprising confirmed his strategy of sowing division while wiping out the Russians in Bakhmut. Sending some forces to the South would only undermine it. "I was right, Aguto. You were wrong," the American official recalls Syrskyi saying, adding: "We’re going to get to Luhansk."
Quote: "Though counts vary wildly, there is little question that the Russians’ casualties — in the tens of thousands – far outstripped the Ukrainians’. Yet General Syrskyi never did recapture Bakhmut, never did advance toward Luhansk.
Which left Melitopol."
Details: The key advantage was speed – minimising the time between target detection and a Ukrainian strike. However, both this advantage and the Melitopol offensive were compromised by a fundamental shift in the plan. Tarnavskyi had far less ammunition than expected, forcing him to rely on drones to verify intelligence before striking rather than launching immediate attacks.
This cautious approach, driven by limited supplies and a lack of trust, culminated after weeks of slow advances through minefields and helicopter fire as Ukrainian forces neared the occupied village of Robotyne.
American officials recounted the ensuing battle: Ukrainian troops engaged Russian forces with artillery, while US intelligence indicated that the Russians were retreating.
"Take the ground now," Aguto urged Tarnavskyi. However, the Ukrainians spotted a group of Russian soldiers positioned on a hill.
Satellite imagery indicated to the Americans that it was a Russian platoon of 20 to 50 troops, which Aguto did not see as a significant obstacle to the counterattack. However, Tarnavskyi held back until the threat was eliminated. His partners provided the coordinates and advised him to fire and advance simultaneously. Instead, Tarnavskyi deployed reconnaissance drones over the hill to verify the intelligence.
Quote: "Which took time. Only then did he order his men to fire.
And after the strike, he once again dispatched his drones, to confirm the hilltop was indeed clear. Then he ordered his forces into Robotyne, which they seized on 28 August.
The back-and-forth had cost between 24 and 48 hours, officers estimated. And in that time, south of Robotyne, the Russians had begun building new barriers, laying mines and sending reinforcements to halt Ukrainian progress."
Details: General Aguto shouted at General Tarnavskyi, urging him to "press on". However, the Ukrainians had to pull troops from the front line to the rear, and with only seven brigades, they lacked the manpower to sustain the advance.
The Ukrainian push slowed due to multiple factors, but frustrated American officials kept fixating on the platoon on the hill. "A damned platoon stopped the counteroffensive," one officer remarked.
Ukraine never reached Melitopol and was forced to scale back its ambitions. The new objective became the small occupied town of Tokmak, about halfway to Melitopol, near key rail and road routes.
General Aguto had given the Ukrainians more autonomy but later devised a detailed artillery plan, Operation Rolling Thunder, outlining what to fire, which weapons to use, and in what sequence, according to US and Ukrainian officials. However, General Tarnavskyi opposed some of the targets and insisted on using drones to verify key positions, bringing Rolling Thunder to a standstill.
Desperate to salvage the counteroffensive, the White House secretly approved the transfer of a limited number of cluster munitions with a range of about 100 miles. Generals Aguto and Mykhailo Zabrodskyi then planned an operation targeting Russian attack helicopters that were threatening Tarnavskyi’s forces. At least 10 helicopters were destroyed, forcing Russia to withdraw all its aircraft to Crimea or the mainland. However, the Ukrainians still struggled to advance.
Quote: "The Americans' last-ditch recommendation was to have General Syrskyi take over the Tokmak fight. That was rejected. They then proposed that General Sodol send his marines to Robotyne and have them break through the Russian line. But instead, General Zaluzhnyi ordered the marines to Kherson to open a new front in an operation the Americans counselled was doomed to fail – trying to cross the Dnipro and advance toward Crimea.
The marines made it across the river in early November but ran out of men and ammunition. The counteroffensive was supposed to deliver a knockout blow. Instead, it met an inglorious end."
Read also: Ukraine's former Foreign Minister on how group of 31 soldiers made offensive on Robotyne possible
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