ISW: Russia may escalate offensives in spring and summer as part of pressure campaign on Ukraine

Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have suggested that Russian forces are preparing to escalate offensive operations in several parts of the war zone in the spring and summer of 2025. This may be part of Moscow's strategy to increase pressure on Ukraine amid potential peace talks.

Source: ISW

Details: Ukrainian officials told the Associated Press that the Russians could launch a new offensive in an unspecified area of the front in the coming weeks.

Diplomats from the Group of Seven (G7) nations share concerns voiced by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy about a possible escalation of hostilities in Sumy, Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. Additionally, two Ukrainian commanders reported that Russia has recently stepped up reconnaissance missions along the front line and intensified combat operations on the Pokrovsk front.

Major Viktor Trehubov, spokesman for the Khortytsia Operational Strategic Group, stated that Russian forces have "recovered" after a temporary operational pause on the Pokrovsk front. He added that Ukrainian intelligence has detected a significant concentration of Russian troops near Selydove, south of Pokrovsk.

The commander of a Ukrainian battalion operating in Donetsk Oblast expressed concern that Russia might move some of its forces from Kursk Oblast to other parts of the war zone.

Quote: "ISW has recently observed intensifications in Russian offensive operations in the Lyman, Pokrovsk and Orikhiv directions and ongoing Russian offensive operations in northern Sumy Oblast aimed at pushing Ukrainian forces from remaining positions in Kursk Oblast."

Details: ISW reports that Russian forces have advanced to within 3 km of the administrative border between Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts in two sections of the Pokrovsk front. The Kremlin is likely to exploit these advances to sow chaos and fear in the information space.

Quote: "The Russian military command is unlikely to redeploy forces from Kursk Oblast if Russia intends to conduct a concerted offensive operation to seize or advance closer to the city of Sumy, and Russia likely does not have enough readily deployable operational-level reserves to conduct significant offensive operations against the cities of Sumy, Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia without redeploying forces already committed to other areas of the front line."

Details: ISW analysts suggest that the Russian military is likely aiming to bring these cities within artillery range to make civilian life unbearable or to prepare for ground operations ahead of a potential ceasefire.

Quote: "It is unlikely that the Russian military is capable of conducting three significant offensive efforts against major Ukrainian cities even after conducting such redeployments, as Russia has suffered significant armoured vehicle and personnel losses over the last three years of fighting and has not demonstrated the ability to conduct complex operations involving multiple simultaneous axes of advance since Winter 2022."

Details: As of this report, ISW has not identified any significant redeployment of Russian troops on the Sumy, Kharkiv, or Zaporizhzhia fronts in open sources that would indicate preparations for renewed offensive operations. However, analysts suggest that Russian forces may have conducted a rotation that was not publicly reported.

To quote the ISW's Key Takeaways on 29 March:

• Ukrainian and US officials continue to negotiate the terms of temporary ceasefires on Black Sea operations and energy infrastructure strikes, indicating the ceasefires are not yet fully codified.
• The Kremlin appears to be using the Black Sea ceasefire negotiations with the United States to test the extent to which Russia can extract concessions from the West, as the implementation of a maritime truce would not require any sanctions relief.
• European allies continue to provide financial and materiel support to Ukraine and agreed to expand intelligence sharing with Ukraine.
• Russian forces are reportedly poised to intensify offensive operations in several areas of the frontline in Spring and Summer 2025 in hopes of influencing ongoing ceasefire and peace negotiations.
• Russia continues to target civilian infrastructure in Ukraine amid reports of shifting and more deadly Russian strike tactics.
• Russian forces are reportedly employing more advanced long-range drones, complicating Ukrainian air defence operations and allowing more drones to penetrate Ukraine's air defence umbrella.
• Zelenskyy ordered Ukraine's Ministry of Defence (MoD) and General Staff to establish a new aviation chain of command within the Ukrainian General Staff and conduct widespread aviation management reform to strengthen Ukraine's aerial capabilities.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced in Belgorod Oblast and near Pokrovsk. Russian forces recently advanced near Kupiansk, Toretsk, and Pokrovsk.
• The Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) announced the launch of the "Indra Navy 2025" exercises in Chennai, India.

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