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Kremlin seeks lifting of US sanctions in exchange for ceasefire in Black Sea – ISW

Wednesday, 26 March 2025, 04:51
Kremlin seeks lifting of US sanctions in exchange for ceasefire in Black Sea – ISW
Russian and US flags. Stock photo: Getty Images

Russia has stated that it will not comply with the Black Sea ceasefire unless the United States lifts sanctions on state-owned Rosselkhozbank and other financial institutions engaged in the international trade of food and fertilisers.

Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW)

Details: ISW pointed out that the Kremlin is demanding that Washington lift sanctions on Russian banks, restore their access to the SWIFT system and remove restrictions on trade-related financial transactions.

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Quote: "Additionally, they must lift sanctions restricting companies producing and exporting food and fertilisers and their insurance companies, lift restrictions on servicing ships in ports and sanctions against ships operating under the Russian flag involved in trading food and fertiliser products and lift restrictions on supplying agricultural machinery and other tools used in food and fertiliser production to Russia."

Details: The United States did not grant Russia the sanctions relief it demanded when Ukraine and Russia reached a grain deal in July 2022.

Statements from the White House and the Kremlin following the US-Russia meetings stated that "the United States will help restore Russia’s access to the world market for agricultural and fertiliser exports, lower maritime insurance costs and enhance access to ports and payment systems for such transactions".

However, ISW analysts note that the US statement did not explicitly link Russia’s acceptance and compliance with the Black Sea ceasefire to a prior easing of US sanctions.

Quote: "The United States will likely require European Union (EU) cooperation in order to lift some sanctions and restrictions on Russian agricultural, financial and trade entities to reconnect Russia to international agricultural and fertiliser markets."

Details: US President Donald Trump, when asked whether the US could lift some sanctions against Russia before it takes reciprocal measures in the Black Sea, said that such a possibility is being considered.

Quote: "The Kremlin's official statements are vague, stipulate requirements for the ceasefire that neither the United States nor Ukrainian official statements mention and leave room for disagreement among the parties that would be involved in interpreting the agreements, lifting sanctions and monitoring potential violations.

The official Kremlin statement is vague on the specific sanctions and restrictions the Kremlin is demanding that the West preliminarily lift and the specific financial organisations and companies involved. The Kremlin statement also does not specify the actors that will interpret the parameters of these restrictions, monitor lifting these restrictions and verify all parties' compliance."

To quote the ISW's Key Takeaways on 25 March:

  • US, Ukrainian and Russian officials reached some agreements for temporary ceasefires on strikes against energy infrastructure and in the Black Sea. The details of these ceasefires remain unclear and evaluating the ceasefires' specifics in the absence of officially published joint texts of the agreements signed by Russia and Ukraine remains difficult.
  • The Kremlin's and [Ukrainian Defence Minister Rustem] Umierov's statements suggest that Russia and Ukraine may not yet be in agreement about whether the ceasefire has gone into effect or not as of 25 March.
  • Putin continues to reject Trump's and Zelenskyy's proposed temporary frontline ceasefire, despite agreeing to some form of ceasefire for strikes on energy infrastructure and in the Black Sea. Putin's persistent stalling and intransigence are inhibiting Trump's efforts to secure a lasting and stable peace settlement.
  • The Kremlin stated that it will not implement the agreed ceasefire in the Black Sea until the United States lifts sanctions on Russian state-owned agricultural bank Rosselkhozbank and other unspecified financial organisations involved in international food and fertiliser trade.
  • Russian forces recently advanced in the Kursk-Sumy Oblast border area, near Toretsk and in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
  • The Russian military continues to deny rotations to soldiers who have been fighting in the war in Ukraine for years.

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