Poll reveals Ukrainians support 30-day ceasefire but firmly reject Russia's demands
A poll has revealed that 77% of Ukrainians are positive about the proposal for a 30-day temporary ceasefire, while 79% consider the conditions set by Russia for ending hostilities to be completely unacceptable.
Source: a poll conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) on 12-25 March
Details: Sociologists explained that respondents were presented with six interpretations of the 30-day ceasefire proposal: three generally positive for Ukraine and three generally negative. Each respondent was asked to select one.
Quote: "The absolute majority of Ukrainians – 77% – have a positive interpretation of this proposal. Most often, respondents (47% out of 77%) said that this is a way to show that Russia does not want peace or that Russia is violating the agreements. In addition, 12% talk about a way to unblock military aid. The remaining 18% call it primarily a step towards ending the war on terms acceptable to Ukraine. That is, the perception of the proposal is positive, but few believe that it is a real start to the path to peace on acceptable terms."
Details: Only 17% of respondents chose one of the three negative options: 8% consider it a mistake that will weaken Ukraine, 7% see it as a desperate move by the government due to difficulties at the front, and 2% believe it is a step towards Ukraine’s capitulation.
Following the phone call between US President Donald Trump and Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin, pollsters also asked Ukrainians how they viewed the conditions Putin announced for a ceasefire. These included halting mobilisation in Ukraine, stopping Western arms supplies, and ending the provision of intelligence to Kyiv.
Quote: "For the absolute majority of Ukrainians – 79% – Russian demands for a ceasefire are categorically unacceptable. Ready to accept them – 16% (of which 14% find it a difficult option)."
Details: Sociologists highlighted that overwhelming majorities across all Ukrainian regions reject Putin’s demands – 80-81% in western, central and southern parts of Ukraine and 64% in the east.
A total of 62% of respondents said they would categorically not support a temporary ceasefire if it did not include any security guarantees.
Quote: "If Ukraine receives at least some security guarantees, more than half of Ukrainians will (albeit reluctantly) support a ceasefire. At the same time, the difference between different guarantee options (in terms of support from the Ukrainian public) is quite insignificant."
More details: Specifically, 60% of respondents support the option of deploying Western peacekeepers to enforce the ceasefire, while 34% are categorically opposed.
If NATO membership is offered as a security guarantee, 58% would support a ceasefire, while 32% would be firmly against it.
If Ukraine's defence forces receive greater support (more air defences, aircraft, etc.), 56% would support a ceasefire, while 35% would be categorically opposed.
For reference: The survey was conducted from 12 to 22 March using telephone interviews based on a random sample of mobile numbers. A total of 1,326 people aged 18 and older were interviewed across all Ukrainian government-controlled regions. Residents of temporarily occupied territories were not included (although internally displaced persons from those areas were), and Ukrainians who left the country after 24 February 2022 were also excluded.
Formally, under normal circumstances, the statistical error of such a sample (with a probability of 0.95 and taking into account the design effect of 1.3) did not exceed 3.5% for indicators close to 50%, 3.1% for indicators close to 25%, 2.1% for indicators close to 10%, and 1.6% for indicators close to 5%.
In wartime, a certain systematic deviation is added in addition to the above formal error. However, sociologists believe the results still offer a reliable reflection of public sentiment.
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