Kremlin likely uninterested in meaningful peace talks – ISW

Analysts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have pointed out that the Russian authorities are likely not interested in meaningful talks to end the war in Ukraine and prefer bilateral talks about relations with the United States.

Source: ISW

Quote from ISW: "The Kremlin is recirculating existing narratives aimed at undermining support for Ukraine amid the negotiations in Riyadh and likely remains uninterested in conducting meaningful negotiations to end the war."

Details: Analysts noted that Kremlin officials are likely trying to take advantage of the current lack of available details regarding the US-Ukraine and US-Russia talks in Riyadh on 23 and 24 March.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has accused Ukraine of being "well-bred Nazis" who lack independence, as part of the Kremlin's efforts to justify its call for "denazification" – essentially regime change and the installation of a pro-Russian government in Kyiv – as a condition for ending the war in Ukraine.

Lavrov also repeated claims that European nations are trying to prolong the war, possibly to create a divide between Europe and the United States.

Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov accused Ukraine of breaching a proposed moratorium on energy strikes, even though the details of the agreement are still being discussed in Riyadh and have not been finalised.

Peskov, along with Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova, tried to manage domestic expectations for the ongoing talks, saying that there is no need to expect any major breakthroughs and that much work remains on technical matters.

Quote from ISW: "These statements continue to signal to the domestic Russian audience that Russians should not expect a meaningful peace in Ukraine in the near term and support Kremlin condition-setting for a protracted war effort."

Details: Recent comments from Russian diplomats and academics suggest that the Kremlin is likely focusing on prioritising bilateral talks with the United States over discussions aimed at ending the war in Ukraine. It seems the Kremlin intends to set this expectation within Russian society.

To quote the ISW's Key Takeaways on 24 March:

• US and Russian delegations met in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on 24 March following US-Ukrainian talks on 23 March about the details of temporary ceasefires on long-range strikes and in the Black Sea.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced in Demidovka along the international border in northwestern Belgorod Oblast amid ongoing Ukrainian attacks in the area.
• The Kremlin is recirculating existing narratives aimed at undermining support for Ukraine amid the negotiations in Riyadh and likely remains uninterested in conducting meaningful negotiations to end the war.
• Russia continues to persecute religious minorities, especially Evangelical Christian communities in occupied Kherson Oblast as part of a wider campaign in occupied Ukraine aimed at destroying independent Ukrainian national and religious identities.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced in Belgorod Oblast and near Toretsk and Pokrovsk, and Russian forces recently advanced near Siversk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk and Velyka Novosilka.
• Russian forces are reportedly failing to adequately provision first person view (FPV) drone units amid ongoing efforts to centralise Russian drone operations under the Russian Ministry of Defence.

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