ISW: Kremlin tries to disrupt peace talks and set Ukraine and US at odds

Russian authorities have stepped up information attacks in an attempt to undermine the possibility of peace talks with Ukraine. Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have pointed out that the Kremlin is deliberately spreading narratives that are intended to split Kyiv and Washington, discredit Ukraine and justify the continuation of the war.

Source: ISW

Details: Analysts emphasised that the Kremlin is stepping up its information campaigns, accusing Ukraine of war crimes, attacks on Russian infrastructure and violations of agreements with the West. In particular, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said that the United States should explain how it would "manage" Ukraine after alleged Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy facilities.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov also used the explosion at the gas distribution station in Sudzha, Kursk Oblast, to discredit Kyiv, saying that Ukraine's denial of involvement "shows how much one can believe and trust" Ukraine.

In addition, the Russian authorities are trying to create the impression that Kyiv is deliberately violating Western restrictions, in particular the moratorium on strikes on Russian energy infrastructure. ISW emphasised that Moscow was trying to sow doubts about Ukraine's reliability among its Western allies and undermine their trust.

On 21 March, the Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation released information on criminal cases against the Ukrainian military, accusing them of attacks on the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant and civilians. ISW analysts believe that these actions are part of a broader Kremlin strategy to create the impression that Ukraine threatens stability in the region and force the United States to reconsider its support for Kyiv.

Quote: "ISW recently assessed that the Kremlin was preparing to intensify narratives accusing Ukrainian forces of war crimes in Kursk Oblast to discredit the Ukrainian military, erode Western support for Ukraine, and spoil or delay talks about temporary ceasefire proposals."

Details: The ISW noted that throughout the full-scale war, the Kremlin has consistently promoted these narratives in an attempt to divert attention from Russia's actions.

The analysts reiterated that Russian troops committed numerous war crimes on the battlefield and in the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine and militarised the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. The report also noted that on 14 February, a Russian Shahed attack drone damaged the shelter over the destroyed power unit 4 of the Chornobyl Nuclear Power Plant.

Quote: "The Kremlin may seek to leverage its narratives falsely portraying Ukraine as recklessly endangering Russian nuclear power plants and being an unsafe operator of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant to spoil US-Ukrainian bilateral talks, given recent US and Ukrainian official statements about possible US involvement in Ukrainian energy infrastructure, including the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant."

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 21 March: 

• The Kremlin is weaponising ongoing ceasefire negotiations and deliberately misrepresenting the status and terms of a future ceasefire agreement in order to delay and undermine negotiations for a settlement to the war.
• Kremlin officials are leveraging narratives about Ukrainian strikes and combat operations in Russian territory to justify rejecting peace negotiations with Ukraine and continuing the war to a domestic Russian audience.
• US Special Envoy to Ukraine Keith Kellogg stated that US officials will conduct "shuttle diplomacy" to engage bilaterally with both Ukrainian and Russian delegations in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
• Russia continues to strengthen its bilateral relations with North Korea, despite growing warnings from the US against deeper Russian-North Korean cooperation.
• Russian officials also continue to deepen ties with the People's Republic of China (PRC).
• Ukraine's European allies continue efforts to provide Ukraine with military assistance and bolster Ukraine's defence industrial base (DIB).
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced in Belgorod Oblast. Russian forces recently advanced in Sumy Oblast and near Kupiansk, Toretsk and Pokrovsk.
• Ukrainian and Western defence officials estimated that the Russian monthly casualty rate is between 20,000 and 35,000 servicemembers.

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