ISW: Putin wants to use peace talks to get concessions from Ukraine and US

Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have pointed out that Russian ruler Vladimir Putin is preparing Russians for a prolonged war in Ukraine and wants to use the upcoming ceasefire talks to obtain preventive concessions from Ukraine and the United States.

Source: ISW

Quote: "Putin continues to condition domestic Russian audiences to prepare for a protracted war in Ukraine rather than a sustainable peace built on compromise."

Details: Statements by Putin and other Kremlin officials in recent days and weeks, which emphasise narratives about the difficulty of the negotiations, the alleged illegitimacy of Ukrainian officials, and the divide between the US and Europe, are reinforcing the message that Russia expects a prolonged war in Ukraine and peace only on its terms.

It is also reported that Putin has explicitly told Russian businessmen to prepare for a prolonged war.

Quote: "Kremlin officials continue to amplify narratives indicating that Putin remains committed to his long-standing goal of conquering Ukraine and is attempting to leverage upcoming ceasefire negotiations to secure preemptive concessions from Ukraine and the United States."

Details: On 20 March, Sergei Shoigu, Secretary of the Russian Security Council, reiterated statements that the Ukrainian government is illegitimate and that the Ukrainian authorities must cancel the September 2022 decree banning talks with Putin before Ukraine and Russia could discuss ending the war.

Shoigu also said that Ukraine should change the constitutional provisions on territorial integrity. Ukraine's constitution recognises temporarily occupied Crimea and the city of Sevastopol, as well as Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson oblasts, as Ukrainian and prohibits the Ukrainian government from amending the constitution if these changes aim to eliminate Ukraine's independence or violate its territorial integrity.

Quote: "Shoigu is likely calling for Ukrainian authorities to amend the constitution in order to allow Ukraine to recognise Russia's occupation and illegal annexation of occupied Ukraine."

Details: The review also notes that Kremlin officials are working to escalate tensions between the United States and its European allies in order to cut off Western support for Ukraine and undermine the NATO alliance.

On 20 March, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that Europe's militarisation plans were "clearly at odds with" Putin and Trump's efforts to achieve peace in Ukraine and that Europe has become "a war party".

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 20 March: 

• Ukrainian forces conducted a drone strike against Engels Airbase in Saratov Oblast on the night of 19-20 March.
• Russia, Ukraine and the United States have not yet concluded the details of the moratorium against energy infrastructure strikes. The Ukrainian strike against Engels Airbase would not have been subject to this moratorium in any event because it is a military target.
• The Kremlin announced that Russia and the United States will hold another round of talks in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia on 24 March, and it is unclear whether these talks will include Ukraine.
• Kremlin officials continue to amplify narratives indicating that Russian ruler Vladimir Putin remains committed to his long-standing goals of conquering Ukraine and is attempting to leverage upcoming ceasefire negotiations to secure preemptive concessions from Ukraine and the United States.
• Ukraine’s allies continue to provide financial and material military assistance to Ukraine, including funds from frozen Russian assets in Europe.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced in Belgorod Oblast and Russian forces recently advanced in Kursk Oblast and near Toretsk, Pokrovsk and Velyka Novosilka.

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