Russia becomes increasingly reliant on Iran and North Korea to support its war against Ukraine – ISW

Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War point out that Russia has become increasingly reliant on Iran and North Korea to support its war against Ukraine.

Source: ISW

Quote: "Russia appears to be relying more on Iran and North Korea to support its war in Ukraine."

Details: The report notes that Iran has largely enabled Russia's nightly series of large-scale drone strikes by providing Russia with Iranian-designed and manufactured Shahed drones and helping Russia set up its own Shahed production plant in the Republic of Tatarstan.

Lieutenant General Kyrylo Budanov, Head of Defence Intelligence of Ukraine, stated this on 23 February during the "Ukraine. Year 2025" forum.

He said that half of Russia's ammunition comes from North Korea, and they have started large-scale deliveries of 170mm self-propelled artillery pieces and 240mm multiple launch rocket systems.

Budanov added that North Korea plans to provide Russia with 148 ballistic missiles, probably in 2025.

To quote the ISW's Key Takeaways on 23 February:

• US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff referred to the early 2022 Istanbul protocols as offering "guideposts" for negotiations between Russia and Ukraine on 23 February. An agreement based on those protocols would be a capitulation document.
• Ukraine is unlikely to accept any peace agreement based on the Istanbul negotiations as such terms are effectively a full Ukrainian surrender to Russia's long-term war goals.
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy continues to demonstrate his commitment to preserving Ukraine's democracy and a just resolution to the war.
• Ukrainian officials continue to highlight Ukraine's domestic defence industry and domestically produced strike capabilities.
• Russian leader Vladimir Putin appointed Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF) CEO Kirill Dmitriev as Special leader’s Representative for Investment and Economic Cooperation with Foreign Countries on 23 February.
• Russian forces launched a record number of drone strikes against Ukraine on the night of 22–23 February, ahead of the third anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine on 24 February.
• Russia appears to be relying more on Iran and North Korea to support its war in Ukraine.
• Russian forces continue to execute Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) in clear violation of international law.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Toretsk, and Russian forces recently advanced near Siversk, Pokrovsk and Velyka Novosilka.
• The Russian government continues efforts to increase its defence industrial output.

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