ISW analyses how Russian troops could use advance in Toretsk, Donetsk Oblast

Analysts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have pointed out that the Russian troops are using their superiority in numbers to advance to Toretsk (Donetsk Oblast). They have also discussed the possible ways the Russians intend to use their success in Toretsk.

Source: ISW

Details: Russian forces have recently made progress in Toretsk after several weeks of intensified offensive operations and gains in the area.

The review highlights that Russian troops ramped up their offensive on the Toretsk front in June 2024, likely aiming to reduce the Ukrainian salient in the region and hinder Ukrainian forces from shelling Russian rear positions near Chasiv Yar and Pokrovsk, where the main Russian efforts were focused at the time.

Since then, Russian forces have been gradually advancing towards Toretsk and nearby settlements, with recent weeks seeing intensified operations and tactical gains in the northern and northwestern parts of Toretsk.

Quote from the ISW: "Russian forces appear to be shifting assault tactics in Toretsk in order to overwhelm Ukrainian forces and facilitate tactical gains within the settlement."

"Russian forces are likely leveraging their superior manpower quantities to intensify offensive operations and advance within Toretsk."

Details: Analysts suggest that Russia’s success in Toretsk may serve as a springboard for advancing further west of Toretsk and Shcherbynivka and along the T-05-16 Toretsk-Kostiantynivka road, aiming to reach the southernmost point of the Ukrainian fortification belt in Kostiantynivka.

The Russian military might seek to secure positions northwest of Toretsk and in Shcherbynivka’s centre to continue their push along the road through Nelipivka, Pleshchiivka, Ivanopillia and nearby fields. This effort would aim to threaten the southern edge of the Ukrainian defensive line Kostiantynivka-Druzhkivka-Kramatorsk, which forms a critical part of Donetsk Oblast’s defences.

Russian forces may also attempt advances northwest of Toretsk and south of Chasiv Yar towards Bila Hora and Oleksandro-Shultyne to eliminate the Ukrainian "pocket" in the area, aligning the front line west and southwest of Kostiantynivka.

Quote from the ISW: "Such advances would complicate Ukraine's ability to counterattack into Russia's near rear southeast of Chasiv Yar, including towards Klishchiivka, and would allow Russian forces to deploy additional artillery systems within range of Kostyantynivka and operate first-person-view (FPV) drones within range of the town."

Details: Additional movements west and northwest of New-York and Leonidivka towards the H-20 Donetsk-Kostiantynivka and H-32 Pokrovsk-Kostiantynivka roads could aim to secure the southern flank for a broader offensive on Kostiantynivka.

The analysts suggest that Russian forces are likely to achieve quicker progress in the fields and smaller settlements north and west of Toretsk compared to their gradual advance towards Toretsk itself.

Russian units in the area might attempt to replicate the short but tactically significant mechanised attacks they executed on the Kurakhove and Vuhledar fronts in autumn 2024, provided they have sufficient reserves of armoured vehicles for this sector.

Quote from the ISW: "Russian forces may attempt to leverage tactical gains within and near Toretsk and east of Pokrovsk to eliminate the Ukrainian salient southwest of Toretsk.

Russian forces may attempt to leverage gains within Toretsk and in the Toretsk-Shcherbynivka-New-York area with recent Russian gains east of Pokrovsk to eliminate the Ukrainian pocket between Vozdvyzhenka (east of Pokrovsk) and Toretsk.

Russian advances east of Pokrovsk and west of Toretsk may be part of an ongoing effort to make opportunistic gains that seize any territory, regardless of that territory’s relative insignificance."

Details: However, experts say that Russian troops are unlikely to pose a serious threat to Kostiantynivka unless the Russian military command reinforces this front with additional troops from other frontline areas.

Quote from the ISW: "The Russian military command may continue to prioritize the Pokrovsk and Kurakhove direction but deprioritise offensive operations in another sector of the front, such as the Kupyansk or Borova directions, in order to redeploy forces to the Toretsk direction."

"ISW is not prepared to offer a forecast of how the Russians will weigh the effort near Toretsk at this time."

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 7 January:

• Russian forces recently advanced in northwestern Toretsk following several weeks of higher tempo Russian offensive operations and gains in the area.
• Russian forces likely intend to exploit their advances in northwestern Toretsk to push further west of Toretsk and Shcherbynivka and along the T-05-16 Toretsk-Kostiantynivka highway towards the southernmost point of Ukraine's fortress belt in Kostiantynivka.
• Russian forces may attempt to leverage tactical gains within and near Toretsk and east of Pokrovsk to eliminate the Ukrainian salient southwest of Toretsk.
• Russian forces are likely attempting to break out of Toretsk's urban environment and advance into more open and rural areas that are similar to the areas where Russian forces have made significant gains in other sectors of the front in recent months.
• Russian forces are unlikely to pose a significant threat to Kostiantynivka unless the Russian military command reinforced the existing force grouping in the area with troops from other frontline areas.
• The Ukrainian General Staff stated that Ukrainian forces struck a command post of the Russian 810th Naval Infantry Brigade (Black Sea Fleet [BSF], Southern Military District [SMD]) in Belaya, Kursk Oblast on 7 January.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced in Kursk Oblast, and Russian forces recently advanced near Kupiansk, Toretsk, and Pokrovsk and in Kursk Oblast.
• The Kremlin continues to promote the "Time of Heroes" programme, which aims to place veterans of the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine in positions in local, regional, and federal governments.

Support UP or become our patron!