Ukraine is losing up to 20 sq km of territory per day, Russians have seized 3,600 sq km in past year – Militarnyi

Ukraine’s defence forces lost control of over 3,600 sq km of territory in 2024, losing more than 20 sq km per day in November. In 2023, they lost a total of about 540 sq km and liberated about 430 sq km.

Source: Ukrainian military news outlet Militarnyi based on data from Deep State

Details: The report in Militarnyi states that the largest losses in 2024 were in Donetsk and Kharkiv oblasts.

Militarnyi provides approximate figures for the amount of Ukrainian territory lost by month:

• June – 100 sq km per month and 3.4 sq km per day
• July – 160 sq km per month and 5.2 sq km per day
• August – 370 sq km per month and 12 sq km per day
• September – 400 sq km per month and 13.4 sq km per day
• October – 560 sq km per month and 18.7 sq km per day
• November – 610 sq km per month and 20.3 sq km per day
• December – 510 sq km per month and 16.45 sq km per day.

Donetsk Oblast has seen the most intense activity by Russian forces throughout the year.

During the year, the Russians have seized control of more than 2,400 sq km of terrain in the Velyka Novosilka-Ocheretyne area, advancing along the whole length of the Velyka Novosilka-Ocheretyne line. The seized territories had a maximum depth of 45 km. This has reduced the distance to the administrative border with Dnipropetrovsk Oblast to less than 10 km south of Pokrovsk.

During the year, Russian troops have captured at least 335 sq km of terrain in the New York-Siversk area. According to the article, the accuracy of the calculation is made more complex by the existence of a huge grey zone south of Chasiv Yar.

On the Lyman and Kupiansk front, Russian forces have gained control over at least 479 sq km of territory during the year.

In the north of Kharkiv Oblast, the offensive in May 2024 resulted in Russia gaining control over 211 sq km of territory and 13 settlements. However, the defence forces not only stopped the Russian assault but also regained control of territory in certain areas. Militarnyi reports that as of the end of 2024, Russia's overall operation in the north of Kharkiv Oblast had ended in failure.

In Kherson Oblast, Russia has seized about 95 sq km of territory this year which had been under the control of Ukraine’s defence forces as of December 2023. The Ukrainian defence forces’ foothold in the village of Krynky and Russian advances in the surrounding islands account for more than half of the lost territory.

In Zaporizhzhia Oblast, the defence forces have lost control of 97 sq km of territory. Most of this was lost when the Russians regained control of the territories near the village of Robotyne during the Ukrainian defence forces’ offensive in 2023. Other changes are localised.

Also, the defence forces have improved their tactical position in the area of Kamianske village and taken control of about 5 sq km of territory.

During the operation in Russiaʼs Kursk Oblast, which began in August, the Ukrainian defence forces took control of 1,100 sq km of territory within a month. By the end of the year, Ukraine still controlled about 460 sq km. 

Militarnyi predicts that the Russians will continue their efforts to complete the capture of Kurakhove, Toretsk and Chasiv Yar, advance towards the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast with the prospect of launching hostilities in the oblast, and expand their control over Donetsk Oblast territory in all directions.

The Russians are expected to step up their efforts to eliminate the Ukrainian defence forces' footholds on the left bank of the Oskil River and expand their own position on the right bank. According to Militarnyi, additional efforts to land on the right bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson or other oblasts will likely stretch the Ukrainian forces' already low reserves. Militarnyi also expects Russia to continue to push Ukrainian forces out of Kursk Oblast and increase firepower along the Ukrainian border.

Previously: Taras Chmut, head of the Come Back Alive Foundation, a Ukrainian non-governmental military charity, noted in an interview with Ukrainska Pravda in December that Russian forces do not have the potential to capture the cities of Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipro or Kharkiv, but they could take advantage of the chaos in the management of Ukrainian troops and achieve some local victories.

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