Ukrainian actions in Black Sea to undermine Russia's control over occupied Crimea – ISW

Olha Hlushchenko — Friday, 3 January 2025, 05:02

A Magura V5 uncrewed surface vessel. Stock photo: Getty Images

Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have observed that Ukraine's enhanced offensive capabilities in the Black Sea, highlighted by the destruction of two Russian helicopters in Crimea, will pose challenges to Russia's hold over the occupied peninsula.

Source: ISW

Details: Defence Intelligence of Ukraine (DIU) has revealed fresh details about a 31 December naval drone operation that struck Russian Mi-8 helicopters in the Black Sea "as Ukrainian strikes continue to degrade Russian operations in occupied Crimea".

DIU noted on 2 January that a Ukrainian Magura V5 uncrewed surface vessel (USV) had destroyed two Russian Mi-8 helicopters with missiles and damaged one in the Black Sea on 31 December.

Ukrainian intelligence initially reported that the drone strike had destroyed only one helicopter and damaged another.

Dmytro Pletenchuk, spokesperson for the Ukrainian Navy, questioned Russian reports that the helicopters had eight crew members on board, though he noted that the loss of highly qualified helicopter crews was significant.

Pletenchuk also pointed out that Ukrainian strikes on occupied Crimea have disrupted Russian logistics in the region, targeting key infrastructure such as the railway on the illegally constructed Crimean Bridge and ferries transporting railway wagons and fuel tank wagons.

Meanwhile, a Russian military blogger (milblogger) claimed that Russian warships were seeking refuge in bays and ports to evade Ukrainian naval strikes. The blogger also added that Russian forces could only repel Ukrainian missile-equipped naval drones with the assistance of jet and fighter aircraft.

Quote: "ISW assesses that increased Ukrainian offensive capabilities in the Black Sea will most likely threaten Russian control over occupied Crimea."

To quote the ISW's Key Takeaways on 2 January:

Ukraine's decision to not renew its contract to transport Russian gas through Ukrainian territory will likely significantly impact Russian gas revenues despite Kremlin posturing to the contrary.
Gazprom is likely attempting to exploit the cessation of gas transits through Ukraine to create an artificial energy crisis to destabilise Moldova.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy signalled that Ukraine will increase drone and missile strikes against Russia in 2025 as part of efforts to bring Russia to accept Ukraine's demands for a "just peace" in future negotiations.
Russia intends to issue Russian licences for the operation of all six of Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant's (ZNPP) reactors by 2028 as part of Moscow's long-term efforts to legitimise its illegal occupation of the plant and exploit Ukraine's energy supplies.
Ukrainian forces conducted a missile strike in Kursk Oblast, reportedly against a Russian military command post.
Ukraine’s Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) specified new details about the 31 December Ukrainian naval drone strike against Russian Mi-8 helicopters in the Black Sea as Ukrainian strikes continue to degrade Russian operations in occupied Crimea.
Russian forces recently advanced near Siversk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Kurakhove and Vuhledar and in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
The Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) continues to inadequately supply Russian military personnel with basic equipment and ammunition, forcing soldiers to provide their own materiel.