Russian troops prepare to envelop Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad – ISW
The Russians are planning to cut off land supply routes to Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad in Donetsk Oblast to force Ukrainian troops to retreat from these cities.
Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW)
Quote: "Russian forces likely intend to interdict Ukrainian ground lines of communications (GLOCs) into Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad in order to force Ukrainian units to withdraw from the towns in future months. The T-0405 and T-0406 roads are two of the three main east-west GLOCs supporting the Ukrainian force grouping in the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad area."
Details: In their report, analysts from the ISW note that Russian advances to the east and west of Pokrovsk could complicate logistics and hinder the ability of Ukrainian forces to resupply and redeploy troops.
The Russian advances east and west of Pokrovsk may significantly worsen the situation for Ukrainian forces, potentially forcing Ukrainian defenders to retreat north. This could allow Russian troops to encircle Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad. It would also enable Russian forces to advance towards the administrative border between Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts.
Analysts suggest that the Russian military command is likely aiming to avoid conducting frontal assaults on the urban areas of Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad with large infantry forces.
The ISW reports that blocking these settlements increases the likelihood of Ukrainian forces retreating, enabling the Russians to capture these settlements without engaging in heavy urban combat.
To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 13 January:
- Russian forces recently cut the T-0405 Pokrovsk-Kostiantynivka road east of Pokrovsk and the T-0406 Pokrovsk-Mezhova road south-west of Pokrovsk as part of their efforts to encircle Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad.
- Russian forces likely intend to interdict Ukrainian ground lines of communications (GLOCs) into Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad in order to force Ukrainian units to withdraw from the towns in future months.
- Russia's state-owned energy corporation Gazprom acknowledged that it is considering reducing the size of its central office staff by 40 per cent, indicating that Gazprom may be concerned about the long-term effects of the war in Ukraine and the reduction in Russian gas exports to Europe on the Russian gas industry.
- Russian forces recently advanced on the Kharkiv, Borova, Pokrovsk, Kurakhove and Velyka Novosilka fronts.
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