Russian security forces urge Putin to escalate war in Ukraine, ISW says

Senior Russian security and military officials are pushing for an escalation of hostilities in Ukraine, opposing any prospects of negotiations.

Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW)

Details: ISW analysts note that Russian security forces deem it crucial to escalate military operations in Ukraine, prioritising this over seeking a negotiated resolution to the war.

The Russians acknowledge that their forces are not making significant territorial gains relative to the losses in personnel and equipment. However, the Russian military command continues to endure substantial personnel losses for tactical, rather than operational, advances.

Quote: "Average daily Russian advances slowed by roughly nine square kilometres in December 2024 after three straight months of increasing territorial gains and personnel losses in September, October, and November 2024, however, and the Russian military command may be less willing than Putin to incur such high casualty rates if Russian forces' rate of advance continues to slow."

Details: Nevertheless, Russian security and military officials are unwilling to use these losses as a reason to stop the war. Instead, they are urging Putin to escalate the war effort, proposing partial conscription, likely aimed at flooding the battlefield with troops and materiel.

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 9 January:

• Ukraine's Western partners reiterated their support for Ukraine and their commitment to the development of Ukraine's defence industrial base (DIB) at the Ukraine Defence Contact Group at Ramstein Air Base in Germany on 9 January. Ukraine's Western partners announced additional military aid packages at Ramstein Air Base on 9 January.
• Russian elites and high-ranking security officials are reportedly frustrated with Russian leader Vladimir Putin's efforts to wage a full-scale war in Ukraine with half measures and are increasingly concerned with Putin's timeline to end the war. High-ranking Russian security officials appear to be assessing that Russia needs to intensify its war in Ukraine rather than seek an exit via negotiations.
• Russian elites' reported diagnosis of the main problem with Russia's conduct of the war is inaccurate, as Russia's failure to restore manoeuvre to the battlefield – not a shortage of manpower – is the main factor causing Russia's relatively slow rate of advance.
• [Latvia-based Russian media outlet] Meduza's report indicates that Russia's security elite – like Putin himself – is uninterested in a negotiated and peaceful resolution to the war in the near future.
• A Russian opposition investigative outlet reported that Russian authorities have turned a pretrial detention centre (SIZO) in Taganrog, Voronezh Oblast, into a torture centre for Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) and imprisoned Ukrainian civilians.
• The UN condemned the recent surge in Russian executions of Ukrainian POWs.
• The Armenian government approved a draft law on 9 January, beginning Armenia's accession process into the EU.
• Russian forces recently advanced near Borova and Pokrovsk and in Kursk Oblast. Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Sudzha.
• Russian officials continue to indicate that the Kremlin intends to further militarise the Russian government and Russian society in the long term.

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