Russians occupied 4,168 sq km of Ukrainian territory in 2024, losing 420,000 soldiers – ISW

Russia lost over 420,000 soldiers while advancing in Ukraine and Kursk Oblast in 2024, capturing only 4,168 square kilometres of territory, mostly consisting of fields and small settlements.

Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW)

Details: ISW reported that Russia lost an average of 102 personnel for every square kilometre of territory gained in 2024. The most significant Russian advances occurred between September and November 2024, during which Russia secured 56.5% of its territorial gains, losing approximately 125,800 personnel in the process.

Quote: "The Russian military command likely tolerated record levels of personnel casualties from September through November 2024 to facilitate larger territorial gains, but it remains unclear if the Russian military command will be willing to sustain such casualties if Russian forces' rate of advance continues to decline as Russian forces continue to advance on more heavily defended settlements such as Pokrovsk."

Details: The Russian offensive slowed in December 2024. Geolocation data indicates that Russian forces captured only 593 sq. km, averaging 18.1 sq. km per day. Meanwhile, daily Russian troop losses remained high, with an average of 1,585 personnel per day, marking the fourth-highest historical daily loss rate for Russia.

Quote: "Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev claimed on 24 December that 440,000 recruits signed military service contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) in 2024, suggesting that Russia is likely recruiting just enough military personnel to replace its recently high casualty rates one for one."

To quote the ISW's Key Takeaways on 31 December:

• Russian forces gained 4,168 sq. km, largely comprised of fields and small settlements in Ukraine and Kursk Oblast, at a reported cost of over 420,000 casualties in 2024.
• The Russian military command largely prioritised efforts to seize the remainder of Donetsk Oblast and establish a buffer zone in northern Kharkiv Oblast in 2024 but failed to accomplish these goals.
• Russian forces have seized four mid-sized settlements – Avdiivka, Selydove, Vuhledar and Kurakhove – in all of 2024, the largest of which had a pre-war population of just over 31,000 people.
• Russian forces would require just over two years to seize the remainder of Donetsk Oblast at their 2024 rates of advance, assuming that all their advances were confined to Donetsk, that they can seize large urban areas as easily as small villages and fields, and that the Ukrainians do not conduct any significant counterattacks in Donetsk.
• Ukrainian forces have yet to stop Russian forces from advancing in their priority sectors, however, and Western aid remains critical to Ukraine's ability to stabilise the frontline in 2025.
• Russian leader Vladimir Putin officially declared 2025 the "Year of the Defender of the Fatherland" during his New Years' address on 31 December – signalling the Kremlin's continued efforts to militarise Russian society and maintain regime stability by appeasing the growing Russian veteran community.
• Ukrainian naval drones reportedly downed a Russian Mi-8 helicopter near occupied Cape Tarkhankut, Crimea, reportedly marking the first time that a naval drone has shot down an air target.
• Ukrainian forces struck the Yarsevskaya oil depot in Smolensk Oblast and a building used by the Russian military in Lgov, Kursk Oblast on 30 and 31 December.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Kreminna and in Kursk Oblast, and Russian forces recently advanced near Kreminna, Siversk, Chasiv Yar, Pokrovsk and Kurakhove.
• The Russian government will deprive prisoners who volunteer to fight in Ukraine of the one-time enlistment bonus starting 1 January 2025, marking another instance of Russia trying to cut the mounting short- and long-term costs of war.

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