Oreshnik ballistic missile system deployment in Belarus poses no increased risk of strikes to Ukraine or NATO countries – ISW

Analysts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have reported that the deployment of the Oreshnik ballistic missile system in Belarus does not increase the risks of ballistic missile strikes against Ukraine or NATO countries.

Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW)

Quote: "The Kremlin continues to advance its strategic effort to de facto annex Belarus and further expand the Russian military’s presence in Belarus through the Union State framework."  

Details: On 6 December, Russian leader Vladimir Putin and Belarusian self-proclaimed president Alexander Lukashenko signed a new Union State treaty on security guarantees during a meeting of the Supreme State Council of the Union State in Minsk, Belarus. [The Union State, or Union State of Russia and Belarus, is a supranational union consisting of Belarus and Russia, with the stated aim of deepening the relationship between the two states through integration in economic and defence policy - ed.]

In his address, Lukashenko urged Putin to deploy Oreshnik ballistic missiles to Belarus, proposing that the Belarusian military and political leadership would have control over determining the missiles’ targets if they were ever launched from Belarusian soil. 

Putin responded positively, indicating that Russia could deploy the Oreshnik systems in Belarus by mid-2025. 

He further emphasised that the new security agreement allows both countries to utilise "all available forces and means" in fulfiling their mutual defence commitments.

Quote: "The deployment of Oreshnik ballistic missiles to Belarus would further increase Russia’s military footprint in Belarus and advance the Kremlin’s longstanding strategic effort to erode Belarusian sovereignty and de facto annex Belarus through the Union State framework."

Details: In addition to the security treaty, Russia and Belarus signed 10 other documents under the Union State framework. These included a security concept for the Union State, a decree establishing uniform rules for consumer rights protection, a decree outlining joint efforts to combat smuggling and an agreement on creating a unified electricity market.

Quote: "Lukashenko is likely trying to preserve Belarusian sovereignty against Moscow by advocating that Belarus control Russian weapons deployed in Belarus – an endeavour Lukashenko has historically failed at."

Details: Lukashenko publicly insisted that Minsk should have the authority to decide on the use of Oreshnik missiles in Belarus, likely as a way to safeguard Belarus' sovereignty within the Union State and strengthen his bargaining power against further integration. 

He acknowledged that Russian military personnel would continue to operate the Oreshnik system in Belarus, suggesting that Moscow would maintain control over any Oreshnik ballistic missiles placed there.

Despite the Kremlin’s heightened nuclear rhetoric, the deployment of Oreshnik missiles to Belarus does not significantly elevate the immediate threat of intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) attacks on Ukraine or NATO countries.

Quote: "Putin once again tried to flaunt the Oreshnik missile and Russian missile capabilities during the Union State Supreme State Council meeting as part of the Kremlin's reflexive control information operation."

Details: ISW maintains its assessment that the Kremlin’s repeated emphasis on the Oreshnik missile is unlikely to signal the development of significantly new Russian deep-strike capabilities.

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 6 December:

• Russian forces have not yet evacuated the Russian naval base in Tartus, Syria as of 6 December, but it remains unclear whether Russia will keep its vessels at the port as Syrian rebels continue to advance swiftly across regime-held territory.
• Russia appears to be redeploying at least some of its air defence assets that were defending Russia's Khmeimim Air Base in Syria, but the reason for this redeployment remains unclear at this time.
• The Kremlin continues to advance its strategic effort to de facto annex Belarus and further expand the Russian military’s presence in Belarus through the Union State framework.
• Lukashenko is likely trying to preserve Belarusian sovereignty against Moscow by advocating that Belarus control Russian weapons deployed in Belarus – an endeavour Lukashenko has historically failed at.
• The deployment of the Oreshnik missiles to Belarus does not significantly increase the immediate risks of intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) strikes against Ukraine or NATO states despite the Kremlin’s intensified nuclear sabre-rattling.
• The Kremlin is scapegoating former Kursk Oblast Governor Alexei Smirnov for Russia's failure to adequately respond to Ukraine's incursion into Kursk Oblast.
• Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov used his interview with an American media personality to reiterate Kremlin talking points that are intended to shape American foreign policy and achieve a US-Russia reset detrimental to US interests and on the Kremlin's terms.
• Western sanctions are reportedly degrading the overall quality of Russian drones, indicating that targeted sanctions are having some negative effects on the Russian defence industrial base (DIB).
• Russian forces recently advanced near Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Kurakhove and Vuhledar.
• The Russian military continues to lose parts of its officer corps, a resource that is difficult to replenish, as part of Russia's ever-increasing casualties.

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