Putin claims economic growth, but figures show problems – ISW
Russian leader Vladimir Putin has declared that the country’s economy is stable and growing, but experts have pointed to a number of serious problems, such as inflation, falling savings and labour shortages, that cast doubt on Putin's claims.
Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW)
Details: At an investment forum hosted by Russian state-owned VTB Bank on 4 December, Putin said that Russia's economy would grow by 4% by the end of 2024 and that GDP had already grown by 4.1% since the beginning of the year. Nevertheless, he called on the Central Bank to curb inflation, indirectly acknowledging the economic problems.
Quote: "Putin is likely attempting to posture economic stability despite reports that Russia may raise key interest rates to 25 percent in December 2024, after the Russian Central Bank already raised the key interest rate to 21 percent in October 2024. Russian Central Bank Head Elvira Nabiullina stated on 4 December that the Central Bank may raise the key interest rate at the upcoming Central Bank's board of directors meeting. Russian state outlet RBK reported on 4 December, citing Central Bank data, that Russians' cash savings have fallen to a historical low and that cash roubles account for only 15 percent of Russian citizens' savings."
More details: Putin also noted that Russia's unemployment rate was at a record low of 2.3%. However, experts attribute this to conscription.
Quote: "Putin failed to note that unemployment rates are likely at a record low for youth as many young Russian men are fighting in Ukraine and that Russia is suffering significant labor shortages."
To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 4 December:
- Mounting evidence continues to personally implicate Russian leader Vladimir Putin and other senior Kremlin officials in the forced deportation and "re-education" of Ukrainian children in Russia.
- Russian leader Vladimir Putin continues to posture Russian economic stability and growth while high interest rates and efforts to combat inflation suggest that the Kremlin is worried about economic stability in the long term.
- Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan announced on 4 December that Armenia has effectively reached "the point of no return" in its ties with the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO).
- Ukrainian forces recently regained lost positions in Toretsk and near Velyka Novosilka. Russian forces recently advanced in Chasiv Yar, near Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Vuhledar, Velyka Novosilka, and in Kursk Oblast.
- The Kremlin continues to use its "Time of Heroes" program to place veterans of the war in Ukraine in leadership positions within the Russian government and major state companies.
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