Russia tries to discredit Ukraine by accusing it of refusing to exchange prisoners of war – ISW

Russia is actively conducting a discrediting operation against the Ukrainian government, trying to undermine public confidence in the government and to present Ukraine as a state that allegedly refuses to negotiate the exchange of prisoners of war.

Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW)

Details: Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said on 27 November that Russia was ready to exchange 630 Ukrainian prisoners of war in a one-for-one format. In response, on 2 December, Russian Human Rights Commissioner Tatyana Moskalkova published a list of these individuals and claimed that Ukraine had refused the exchange offered by Russia.

However, on 3 December, Brigadier General Dmytro Usov, Secretary of the Coordination Headquarters and Deputy Head of Defence Intelligence of Ukraine, denied these statements. He noted that the Russian side had not submitted any official requests for an exchange. The general also noted that the names published by Russia include civilians as well as prisoners of war whom Ukraine has already brought home. Usov emphasised that Moscow is probably trying to discredit the Ukrainian government.

One of the Russian inside sources noted that the 29 November and 3 December statements by Zakharova and Moskalkova about Russia's alleged readiness to conduct a large prisoner exchange are an attempt to present a false narrative to Ukraine's Western partners and allies that the Ukrainian leadership is unwilling to negotiate, while falsely portraying Russia as a party interested in negotiations.

ISW analysts note that such actions by the Kremlin are likely aimed at diverting attention from Russia's efforts to disrupt the prisoner of war exchange process and from ongoing reports of human rights violations in Russia, including executions of Ukrainian prisoners of war.

It was Russia, not Ukraine, that previously demonstrated an unwillingness to exchange prisoners of war, as Russia rejected Ukrainian exchange proposals several months before the Ukrainian offensive in Kursk Oblast in August 2024.

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 2 December:

• Russia is evacuating naval assets from its base in Tartus, Syria, which may suggest that Russia does not intend to send significant reinforcements to support Syrian President Bashar al Assad's regime in the near term.
• The US announced additional military assistance worth US$725 million for Ukraine on 2 December.
• Russian officials continue to perpetuate information operations about prisoner-of-war (POW) exchanges in order to portray Ukraine as unwilling to negotiate and to undermine Ukrainians' trust in their government.
• India is reportedly attempting to decouple its defense industry from Russia as it increases cooperation with Western defense companies and builds up its own defense industrial base (DIB).
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced in Kursk Oblast and regained lost positions near Kupiansk. Russian forces recently advanced near Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Velyka Novosilka.
• Russian forces reportedly continued to suffer significant personnel and armored vehicle losses throughout November 2024 as they attempted to maintain intensified offensive operations in eastern Ukraine.

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