Putin prioritises Russia's military power and domestic political stability – ISW

Olha Hlushchenko — Tuesday, 31 December 2024, 06:58

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has said that Russian leader Vladimir Putin is ignoring efforts to soften the economic pressure on Russia and workforce deficits in the country, instead prioritising Russia’s "force generation requirements" and domestic political stability.

Source: ISW

Quote from the ISW: "The Kremlin appears to be prioritising Russia's force generation requirements and domestic political stability over efforts to mitigate economic pressure and labour shortages going into 2025."

Details: According to the ISW, Putin signed a decree on 30 December stating that migrants who entered Russia illegally must apply for legal status or leave Russia by 30 April 2025.

Migrants can obtain legal status by submitting to a series of health screenings, sitting a Russian language, history and legal exam, and paying off all their debts – or by signing a military service contract with the Russian Ministry of Defence.

Quote from the ISW: "Russia is reportedly suffering a labour shortage of 1.5 million people, and Putin's decree will likely further exacerbate Russia's ongoing labour shortages if a significant number of migrants who work in food service, transportation, and other low-skilled industries either leave Russia or forcibly join the Russian military."

Details: The ISW reported that it remains unclear whether Russian authorities will enforce this decree, although whether they do so will likely indicate how Russian authorities are prioritising responding to political, force generation, and economic labour market challenges.

According to the ISW, a decision to enforce Putin’s decree and begin deporting migrants would indicate that Russian authorities are prioritising placating Russian pro-war ultra-nationalists and addressing possible regime security issues associated with ongoing reports of migrants committing crimes and terrorist acts in Russia over addressing Russia's economic issues.

A decision not to enforce the decree would suggest that Russian authorities are prioritising utilising migrant labour to overcome Russia's economic issues and labour shortages over pandering to the Kremlin's ultranationalist constituency.

ISW Key Takeaways from 30 December:

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov reiterated Russia's demand that Ukraine renounce its right to sovereignty and territorial integrity as a precondition to start peace talks, indicating that Russia is not interested in good faith negotiations.
The Kremlin appears to be prioritising Russia's force generation requirements and domestic political stability over efforts to mitigate economic pressure and labour shortages going into 2025.
US President Joe Biden announced an additional military aid package for Ukraine worth US$2.5 billion on 30 December.
Russia and Ukraine conducted one of the largest prisoners of war (POW) exchanges in 2024 on 30 December, resulting in the return of 189 Ukrainian POWs – some of whom had spent over two years in Russian captivity since early 2022.
Russian border guards withdrew from the Agarak border checkpoint on the Armenia-Iran border on 30 December after controlling the checkpoint for over 30 years.
Ukrainian forces recently regained lost positions near Chasiv Yar, Toretsk and Pokrovsk. Russian forces recently advanced in Kursk Oblast and near Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, Vuhledar and Velyka Novosilka.

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