Russia writes off loans to contract soldiers to make up for significant casualties in Ukraine – UK Defence Intelligence

UK Defence Intelligence has analysed a new Russian legislative initiative that states military personnel who sign a contract after 1 December 2024 will have their loan debt written off.

Source: UK Defence Intelligence update dated 30 December on X (Twitter), as reported by European Pravda

Details: The write-off will apply to loans of up to RUB 10 million (approximately US$9,400) and can also be extended to spouses.

This is in addition to the programme for loan repayment holidays for Russian servicemen. Russian news outlet Mediazone reports that 411,000 applications for mortgage and personal loan write-offs have been made since October 2022.

"Russia's financial incentives to military recruits are almost certainly intended to secure sufficient replacements for their steadily increasing casualties, now totalling over 760,000 killed and injured, and averaging 1,523 a day in November 2024," the update says.

UK intelligence notes that these incentives are also almost certainly designed to reduce the likelihood that Russia will have to declare a new mobilisation drive, which the Russian authorities believe damages public support for the war in Ukraine and increases the risk of further disastrous large-scale immigration.

The update also points out that loan write-offs are expected to intensify financial pressure on Russian banks in 2025, alongside the strain from high interest rates and sanctions.

UK Defence Intelligence concludes that this will almost certainly weaken the Russian banking sector's resilience to potential economic shocks.

Background: 

• UK intelligence noted earlier that on 28 November, Russia had experienced a record single-day loss of 2,030 personnel, marking the first time daily losses exceeded 2,000.
• In a previous update, UK Defence Intelligence analysed the change in the tactics of Russian missile attacks on Ukraine.

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