Russia increases Shahed attack drone production for winter campaign against Ukraine – ISW

Russia continues to scale up the production of Shahed drones ahead of its winter campaign against Ukraine in 2024-2025, despite sanctions and technical restrictions.

Source: ISW

Quote: "CNN, citing Ukrainian defence intelligence sources, estimated on 27 December that  Russia's Shahed drone production facility in the Alabuga Special Economic Zone (SEZ) in the Republic of Tatarstan produced 5,760 drones between January and September 2024 – more than twice the number of drones that the facility produced in 2023. CNN, citing leaked documents from the facility, reported that the Alabuga facility is Russia's main Shahed production facility and has already fulfilled an agreement to produce 6,000 drones for the Russian military by September 2025."

Details: It is also reported that Russia is actively developing low-tech decoy drones similar to the Shahed which are used to overcome Ukraine's air defence systems. Up to 10,000 of these decoy drones, almost twice the number of attack drones, are planned to be produced by the end of 2024.

The report notes that the Russians have built two new workshops at the Alabuga plant and installed drone-catching nets over the buildings. To improve logistics, the Russians have created a railway station with a direct connection between Russia and China, through which the necessary components for drone production are supplied.

Quote: "Russian forces will likely continue to adjust their strike packages during Winter 2024-2025 and beyond in order to inflict significant damage on Ukraine's energy grid and critical infrastructure, and Russia likely intends to further increase its production and use of Shahed drones following the anticipated signing of the Russian-Iranian Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement in January 2025."

More details: The analysts say in their report that Russia is facing restrictions on the supply of quality components to its factories due to Western sanctions. Russians are forced to use low-quality engines made in China. Nevertheless, Ukrainian forces, thanks to innovations in electronic warfare, are effectively countering Shahed attacks. 

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways:  

• Russia has continued to expand its domestic production capabilities of Iranian-designed Shahed drones ahead of its Winter 2024-2025 strike campaign against Ukraine.
• Russia has yet to address limitations in its ability to produce and field Shahed drones, however, and will likely continue to struggle with these limitations in 2025.
• Ukrainian forces recently conducted a HIMARS strike against a Russian staff meeting in occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast, reportedly killing three Russian officers, following Ukrainian warnings about the possibility of renewed Russian offensive operations in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
• Russian Federal Air Transport Agency (Rosaviatsiya) attempted to blame weather conditions and the pilot’s response to the Russian emergency airspace closure over the Republic of Chechnya for the Azerbaijan Airlines Embraer 190 passenger aircraft crash in Aktau, Kazakhstan on 25 December.
• Finnish authorities seized the Russian-owned Eagle S crude oil tanker on suspicion that the vessel was recently involved in damaging undersea electricity and telecommunication cables in the Baltic Sea but noted that it is too soon to conclude that Russia is behind the cable disruptions.
• Russian ruler Vladimir Putin appointed Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu to head the newly established Scientific Expert Council of the Russian Security Council.
• Ukrainian forces recently regained positions near Siversk and Russian forces recently advanced near Toretsk, Velyka Novosilka, and on the Pokrovsk and Kurakhove fronts.
• Russian federal subjects (regions) are continuing to increase the value of enlistment bonuses to incentivise military recruitment.

Support UP or become our patron!