If Russia escalates pressure in Kursk Oblast, Ukraine's forces may retreat – Bloomberg
Anonymous US officials believe that should Russia intensify its efforts to push Ukrainian forces out of Kursk Oblast from the start of the new year, the Ukrainian Armed Forces may need to retreat by spring 2025 to avoid encirclement.
Source: Bloomberg
Details: Ukrainian forces have already lost approximately half of the territory they previously secured in Russia’s Kursk Oblast and may lose the rest within a few months, the publication notes.
US officials say that such a development would strip Ukraine of critical leverage in potential ceasefire negotiations with Russia.
Ukrainian forces are reportedly facing manpower shortages and uncertainty over future supplies from the US and its allies.
US officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, indicated that Kyiv may only hold onto Kursk Oblast until spring 2025 if Russia intensifies its offensive. Otherwise, retreating to avoid encirclement would become inevitable.
One official noted that Ukrainian troops have already held their positions in Kursk longer than initially anticipated, partly due to the US decision to allow Kyiv to launch long-range missile strikes on Russian territory.
Another official suggested that Ukraine never intended to maintain control over Kursk, meaning that a retreat could still be framed as a tactical success.
Two US officials expressed hope that President Volodymyr Zelenskyy would order the withdrawal early enough to avoid significant losses.
Despite the potential withdrawal, the invasion has inflicted considerable losses on both Russian and North Korean troops.
John Kirby, spokesperson for the US National Security Council, stated that North Korean forces supporting Russia have carried out "massed, dismounted assaults against Ukrainian positions in Kursk", resulting in over 1,000 casualties in just the past week.
Should Russian forces launch an effective counteroffensive in Kursk, their likely targets would include key roads and cities to force a Ukrainian withdrawal, suggested one of the sources.
The official said North Korea could provide about 8,000 more troops to support Russia's efforts by spring, but added that this estimate could be of "low confidence".
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