Ukraine could be running low on US ATACMS missiles – NYT

The New York Times, citing American officials, has reported that Ukraine is reducing its use of long-range ATACMS missiles, primarily due to dwindling stockpiles. Kyiv reportedly has fewer than 50 of the missiles provided by the US. This challenge is compounded by political shifts in Washington that could affect future military support for Ukraine.

Source: The New York Times

Details: The report notes that when the US decided to provide ATACMS missiles in spring, about 500 units were transferred from Pentagon stockpiles. Initially, Ukraine was restricted from using these missiles to strike Russian territory, instead targeting temporarily occupied territories, including Crimea. However, in mid-November, US President Joe Biden justified granting permission for Kyiv to use these missiles for strikes deep within Russian territory. By then, Ukraine reportedly had only "tens of the missiles" left, approximately 50.

The New York Times cited two US officials as saying that possibilities for securing additional missiles are nearly exhausted. Existing stockpiles were already allocated to regions such as the Middle East and Asia. Meanwhile, the UK, which also allowed Ukraine to use its Storm Shadow missiles on Russian territory following Biden’s decision, recently admitted its own supplies of these missiles are critically low.

The situation is unlikely to change under Donald Trump, who in a recent Time interview disagreed "very vehemently" with Ukraine’s use of ATACMS on Russian territory. Trump criticised the Biden administration’s decision to provide the missiles, calling it "foolish". The Kremlin later commented that Trump’s stance "fully aligns" with Moscow’s views.

The New York Times, referencing data from Russia's Ministry of Defence and military bloggers, reported that after receiving permission from the US and UK, Ukraine conducted at least six missile strikes, using no fewer than 31 ATACMS and 14 Storm Shadow missiles. While the Ukrainian military has not commented on their use, neither the US nor Ukraine officials have disputed the given numbers.

The article also highlights remarks from officials and analysts describing Ukrainian Storm Shadow strike on 20 November against a Russian command bunker near the district of Maryino in Kursk Oblast as one of the most effective attacks.

The following day, Russia launched its new hypersonic ballistic Oreshnik missile, targeting the city of Dnipro in Ukraine. General Valery Gerasimov, Russia’s Chief of the General Staff, held a phone call with General Charles Brown, US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, on 27 November, to discuss concerns about escalation.

Quote: "After that 27 November call, Ukraine didn’t fire ATACMS or Storm Shadows for two weeks. Russia also launched few missile or drone attacks into Ukraine, although Russia’s president [sic], Vladimir V. Putin, threatened to launch the Оreshnik at the centre of Кyiv if Ukraine didn’t stop using ATACMS in Russia."

More details: Despite public threats, Putin has been cautious in responding to Ukrainian operations, the US officials said. They believe Moscow is unlikely to retaliate directly against the US for long-range missile strikes to avoid dragging Washington into the conflict.

Analysts suggest Ukraine has slowed its use of the missiles due to their limited stock and the priority targeting of high-value objectives. Mykola Bielieskov, a military analyst at Ukraine’s government-run National Institute for Strategic Studies, explained: "We decided to wait and find high-value capability, and that’s natural. Don’t expect quick returns, because we need to preserve this capability and spend it judiciously and very wisely".

Background:

• On 17 November, the New York Times reported that US President Joe Biden had for the first time authorised Ukraine to use long-range ATACMS missiles for strikes on Russian territory. Depending on the modification, these missiles have a range of 140 to 300 km.
• In the early hours of 19 November, Ukraine’s defence forces conducted their first strikes on Russian territory using American long-range ATACMS missiles. 

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