Russia rejects possibility of revising conditions for talks with Ukraine – ISW
Russia says that negotiations with Ukraine should be based solely on the terms that were announced in Istanbul and refuses to make any compromises, despite changes on the front line and Ukraine's significant territorial gains.
Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW)
Quote: "Russian Federation Council Speaker Valentina Matviyenko stated on 24 December that Russia is open to compromise in negotiations with Ukraine, but that Russia will strictly adhere to the conditions that it laid out during negotiations in Istanbul in March 2022…"
Details: Matviyenko stressed that Russia would not shift from its conditions by "one iota". In the Istanbul negotiations, Russia insisted that Ukraine adopt a neutral status, preventing it from joining NATO. Another demand was to cap the size of the Ukrainian Armed Forces at 85,000 personnel, similar to the limitations imposed on Germany under the Treaty of Versailles following World War I.
Quote: "Russia's demands at Istanbul were mainly more detailed versions of the demands that Putin made in the months before he launched the full-scale invasion in February 2022, including Ukraine's ‘demilitarisation’ and neutrality."
Details: Matviyenko reaffirmed Putin's demands during her annual Direct Line television press conference on 19 December. Analysts anticipate that other senior Russian officials will make similar statements in the coming weeks, aimed at both domestic and international audiences.
ISW analysts point out that the escalating rhetoric from Russian officials demonstrates Putin’s confidence in achieving victory over Ukraine "despite the tremendous setbacks Ukraine has inflicted on Russian forces since then," the report says.
To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 24 December:
- A senior Russian official reiterated Russian ruler Vladimir Putin's insistence that negotiations with Ukraine must be based on the same uncompromising demands he made before the full-scale invasion and at the moment of Russia's greatest territorial gains, despite the fact that Ukraine has liberated a significant amount of territory since then.
- The Kremlin's economic limitations will likely hinder its efforts to impose policies combatting long-term demographic decline in Russia.
- A Russian cargo ship sank in the Mediterranean Sea on 23 December, possibly while travelling from St. Petersburg to Vladivostok via Syria and Libya.
- The United States provided Ukraine on 24 December with the first tranche of loans generated solely from profits from frozen Russian assets.
- Russian forces recently advanced near Pokrovsk, Toretsk, Vuhledar, Velyka Novosilka, and in Kursk Oblast.
- Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev claimed on 24 December that 440,000 recruits signed military service contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) in 2024.
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