One of Oreshnik ballistic missile parts manufactured in 2017 – Defence Express, photo

Tetyana Oliynyk — Monday, 23 December 2024, 21:58

The results of the analysis of the wreckage of the Oreshnik medium-range ballistic missile system, which Russia fired on Dnipro on 21 November, did not confirm Russian leader Vladimir Putin's claim that it was the latest development.

Source: Defence Express

Details: Analysts report that one of the Oreshnik’s parts has a number and date of manufacture – 12 April 2017. The fact that this missile uses a more than seven-year-old part indicates that this particular Oreshnik was assembled in 2017-2018. And from that time, the missile was lying in a warehouse somewhere.

One of the parts of the Oreshnik missile with the EFIT 302811.002 marking and the date 12 April 2017

Photo: Defence Express

Russia planned to start mass production of the RS-26 Rubezh, which is the real name of the Oreshnik, in 2017. However, Moscow allegedly decided to cancel the supply of the RS-26 into service in March 2018.

Quote: "This also means that the development of the Oreshnik began much earlier because 2017 was the year of production of a specific part. But the design of this missile began in the early 2010s, if not earlier."

Details: Defence Express also found that the index of the found part, EFIT 302811.002, is associated with the Russian rocket and space enterprise Academician N.A. Pilyugin Research and Production Centre for Automation and Instrumentation, part of the State Corporation for Space Activities Roscosmos.

Analysts say the company has developed control systems for missile systems such as Zenit, Proton-M and Fregat upper stages.

In addition, the Academician N.A. Pilyugin Research and Production Centre for Automation and Instrumentation created control systems for Topol-M intercontinental missiles and their upgraded versions. Defence Express analysts suggest that the Oreshnik was assembled from off-the-shelf components, including stages from Yars and Topol missiles.

Quote: "In the end, the fact that in 2017, the control system for an intermediate-range ballistic missile already existed in metal in Russia proves once again that the Kremlin was actively violating the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty with the United States with this development. And not only with missiles for Iskander."

Details: Analysts noted that the analysis of the missile debris is still ongoing.

Background:

Ukraine’s Air Force noted that during the latest missile attack on the city of Dnipro, Russia used an intercontinental ballistic missile. Ukrainska Pravda sources reported that it could have been a Rubezh missile, a potential carrier of nuclear warheads.
In his address on 21 November, Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin indirectly confirmed US reports, stating that during the morning attack on Dnipro on 21 November, Russia used the Oreshnik medium-range missile.
The United States officially confirmed that Russia struck Dnipro on the morning of 21 November with a ballistic missile based on the RS-26 Rubezh intercontinental ballistic missile.
On 22 November, Defence Intelligence of Ukraine announced that Russia had struck the territory of Ukraine on 21 November using a ballistic missile, probably launched from the Kedr missile system.
Kyrylo Budanov, Head of Defence Intelligence of Ukraine, noted that Oreshnik was the name of a research project, "it's just a code". He said that as of October 2024, Russia was supposed to have produced two experimental samples of the Kedr missile system, one of which struck Dnipro on 21 November.
On 28 November, Putin announced the alleged start of mass production of the Oreshnik system. He said he could use the Oreshnik missile against "decision-making centres in Kyiv".

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