ISW analyses how increase in Russian military spending will affect the war in Ukraine

Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) believe that the increase in Russian military spending does not equate to an increase in Russian military capabilities but may affect the Kremlin's ability to sustain the war in Ukraine.

Source: ISW

Details: Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin signed a decree approving the federal budget for 2025 and the draft federal budget for 2026-2027 on 1 December.

The 2025 budget allocates about 41% of Russia's annual spending to military needs.

ISW continues to assess that the increase in Russian military spending, while dangerous, does not necessarily equate to a simultaneous increase in Russian military capabilities, especially given that a significant portion of the funds is being used to pay benefits to Russian military personnel, veterans and their families.

The analysts note that Russia's continued focus on military spending is also likely to affect the effectiveness and sustainability of Russian social programmes, which could affect the Kremlin's ability to maintain the war in Ukraine, given the growing pressure on the Russian economy and Putin's tendency to avoid risks to the stability of his regime.

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 1 December:

• The Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) reportedly replaced Lieutenant General Sergei Kisel with Colonel General Alexander Chaiko who will reprise his previous assignment as commander of the Russian Force Grouping in Syria, though it remains unclear how Russian operations in Syria may change.
• Russian leader Vladimir Putin signed a decree approving the 2025 federal budget and the 2026-2027 draft federal budget on 1 December.
• Russian state media reported that the Russian military command appointed Colonel General Rustam Muradov as the First Deputy Commander of the Russian Ground Forces.
• The Georgian opposition continues to contest the legitimacy of Georgia's ruling Georgian Dream party's electoral victory following Georgian Dream's suspension of Georgia's European Union (EU) membership accession talks.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced in Kursk Oblast, and Russian forces recently advanced near Pokrovsk and Huliaipole.

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