Russian General Staff overestimates data on Russian territorial gains in 2024 – ISW

Analysts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have pointed out that the Chief of the Russian General Staff, General Valery Gerasimov, has significantly exaggerated data on the Ukrainian territories occupied by the Russian army in 2024. ISW has published its own data on this issue.

Source: ISW

Details: Army General Valery Gerasimov, Russian Chief of the General Staff, has significantly exaggerated statistics regarding Russian territorial gains in 2024. 

On 18 December, Gerasimov claimed that Russian forces had captured approximately 4,500 sq. km in 2024. 

However, ISW has confirmed that Russian forces have only taken control of 3,306 sq. km during this period. Gerasimov's inflated figures stand in contrast to Russian Defence Minister Andrei Belousov's more accurate statements at the Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) board meeting on 16 December. 

For instance, Belousov stated that Russian forces' average daily advance is about 30 square kilometres. ISW's geolocation evidence shows that Russian forces advanced at a rate of approximately 27.96 sq. km per day in November 2024. 

Belousov further asserted that Russian forces now control roughly 99% of Luhansk Oblast, 70% of Donetsk Oblast, 74% of Zaporizhzhia Oblast and 76% of Kherson Oblast. ISW assesses that Russian forces occupy about 99% of Luhansk Oblast, 66% of Donetsk Oblast, and 73% of both Zaporizhzhia and Kherson oblasts.

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 18 December:

• Ukrainian forces reportedly struck a chemical plant in Rostov Oblast on 18 December.
  Ukraine's European allies continue to provide monetary and defence industrial support to sustain Ukraine's war effort.
• Russian Chief of the General Staff, Army General Valery Gerasimov, significantly inflated alleged statistics about Russian territorial gains in 2024.
• The Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) announced on 18 December that Russian authorities had detained the suspect who planted the improvised explosive device (IED) that killed Head of the Russian Radiation, Chemical and Biological Protection Troops, Lieutenant General Igor Kirillov, and his aide, Major Ilya Polikarpov, in Moscow on 17 December.
• Russian forces recently advanced near Kupiansk, Kreminna, and Pokrovsk.
• The Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) is increasingly deceiving conscripts into signing military service contracts to fight in Ukraine, likely in an effort to generate more assault forces and maintain the tempo of Russian offensive operations in Ukraine.

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