ISW analyses why Russia hides presence of North Korean troops in Kursk Oblast

Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have reported that official Russia avoids acknowledging the presence of North Korean troops in Kursk Oblast because it would de facto mean that the Kremlin cannot recapture its own territory without the involvement of foreign troops.

Source: ISW

Details: The analyst’s report reaffirms that, on 16 December, US National Security Council spokesman John Kirby confirmed that North Korean troops are engaged in combat and suffering losses in Kursk Oblast, as Russian official sources continue to avoid reporting or confirming the deployment of North Korean troops to participate in hostilities in Russia.

Kirby noted that the US had observed North Korean soldiers moving from the second line of the Kursk Oblast battlefield to the front line in recent days.

Pentagon spokesman Major General Patrick Ryder confirmed on 16 December that North Korean troops had been killed and wounded in the fighting in Kursk Oblast, although he did not provide details on the scale of their losses.

At the same time, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that the Russian military is attempting to conceal casualties among North Korean personnel by burning the faces of deceased North Korean soldiers to obscure their presence in Russia.

Zelenskyy also claimed that Russian forces prohibit North Korean troops from showing their faces during training in Russia and actively remove any video evidence of their activities.

Furthermore, Ukrainian military and intelligence sources previously reported that the Russian army had sought to disguise North Korean troops as soldiers from Buryatia [a region in eastern Russia – ed.].

Analysts additionally note that the ISW has not seen any acknowledgment by Russian officials or state media of the presence of North Korean troops in Russia or their involvement in the fighting in Kursk Oblast.

Quote from the ISW: "The Kremlin will likely continue to avoid reporting on the deployment of North Korean forces in Kursk Oblast as doing so would tacitly acknowledge that Russia needs foreign troops to recapture its own territory and invalidate Russian [leader] Vladimir Putin's claims that the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast resulted in high Russian recruitment rates."

To quote the ISW's Key Takeaways on 17 December:

• The Ukrainian Security Service (SBU) killed Russian Nuclear, Biological, Chemical Defence Forces (NBC) Head Lieutenant General Igor Kirillov and his assistant, Major Ilya Polikarpov, in Moscow on 17 December.
• The Kremlin and Russian propagandists overwhelmingly attempted to frame Kirillov's assassination as an unprovoked terrorist act, rather than a consequence of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine and Kirillov's responsibility for Russian chemical weapons attacks and information operations against Ukraine.
• The Russian ultranationalist information space overwhelmingly called on the Kremlin to retaliate against Ukraine by targeting its military-political leadership and indirectly criticized the Kremlin's decision to not recognise the war in Ukraine as a full-scale war that also impacts the Russian rear.
• US National Security Council Spokesperson John Kirby confirmed on 16 December that North Korean forces are engaged in combat operations and suffering losses in Kursk Oblast as Russian official sources continue to avoid reporting on or confirming the deployment of North Korean forces to combat in Russia.
• Neither the Kremlin nor the interim Syrian government appear sure of the future of Russian bases in Syria, likely accounting for Russia's continued visible preparations at Hmeimim Air Base and the Port of Tartus to withdraw forces despite claims and reports that the interim Syrian government might extend Russian basing rights.
• Russian forces recently advanced near Kupiansk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Vuhledar, Velyka Novosilka, and in Kursk Oblast.
• The Kremlin is scaling up the intended effects of its "Time of Heroes" programme, which aims to install Kremlin-selected veterans into government officials, by tasking Russian regional governments to create more localised analogues.

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