Putin revives narrative of Zelenskyy's illegitimacy, likely to disrupt talks with NATO – ISW

Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin has said that a change of government in Ukraine is a precondition for talks with Russia, once again distorting Ukrainian law and casting doubt on the legitimacy of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Source: ISW (Institute for Study of War)

Details: Putin falsely claimed on 16 December that the Ukrainian Constitution allows only for the extension of the Verkhovna Rada’s (Ukrainian parliament) powers but not the president's, even under martial law. 

In fact, as ISW notes, Ukrainian legislation clearly regulates the electoral process during martial law, which has been in place since February 2022. Under such conditions, it is impossible to hold presidential, parliamentary or local elections. Accordingly, the decision to suspend the 2024 elections is legal and in line with the Constitution.

The Kremlin is actively using the distortion of Ukrainian laws to delegitimise the Ukrainian government. Putin has resumed this narrative, which has not been heard since the summer of 2024, to emphasise the need for a change of government in Kyiv as a condition for any negotiations with Russia. According to the ISW, the Kremlin is not interested in honest negotiations and seeks maximum concessions from Ukraine, including the removal of the legitimate government.

Quote from ISW: "Kremlin officials are using a gross misrepresentation of the Ukrainian Constitution and Ukrainian domestic law to further this claim, which is consistent with Russian decade-long efforts to rhetorically delegitimise Ukraine's government and sovereignty."

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 16 December:

• Russian leader Vladimir Putin's continued fixation on the Russian Oreshnik ballistic missile and Russia's non-nuclear deterrents suggests that the Kremlin may be searching for off-ramps from its ongoing nuclear sabre-rattling narrative.
• Putin once again reiterated the false Russian narrative that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is illegitimate – firmly establishing that the removal of Ukraine's legitimate, democratic government is one of the Kremlin's prerequisites for a negotiated settlement to the war.
• Russian Defence Minister Andrei Belousov also used the 16 December Russian MoD board meeting to restate Putin's previously outlined territorial objectives in Ukraine as another Kremlin prerequisite for a negotiated settlement to the war.
• Belousov also used his 16 December address to position himself as an effective and innovative manager—sharply contrasting his leadership of the MoD with that of former defence minister and current Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu.
• Putin ordered the MoD to establish the Unmanned Systems Forces as part of continued efforts to centralise control over Russian irregular drone units.
• Belousov's statements confirm that the Russian military is recruiting just enough personnel to replace its recent casualty rates, but intensified offensive operations have and will likely continue to strain the efficacy of Russia's cryptomobilisation efforts.
• Russia continues to negotiate with the interim Syrian government to maintain its military presence at the Khmeimim Airbase and Port of Tartus in Syria, but Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov's recent appeals to Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) suggest that talks may have hit a snag. 
• Russia continues to withdraw elements of its force grouping in Syria to the western coast amid limited reports that Moscow plans to fully withdraw within one month.
• Ukrainian forces recently regained lost positions near Pokrovsk, and Russian forces recently advanced near Chasiv Yar, Kurakhove, Velyka Novosilka, and in Kursk Oblast.
•  The Russian government appointed Defence Minister Andrei Belousov as the Chairperson of the Supervisory Board of the Ministry of Defence's (MoD) Military Construction Company, likely as part of ongoing anti-corruption efforts within the Russian MoD.

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