ISW analyses and names goals of Russian attacks on Ukraine's energy sector

Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have pointed out that a series of Russian attacks on Ukrainian energy facilities is part of a broader campaign aimed at freezing Ukraine in the winter and coercing Ukraine and the West into making political decisions favourable to the Kremlin.

Source: ISW

Details: Russian troops carried out the largest series of missile and drone strikes against Ukraine since the beginning of the full-scale war on 12-13 December, mainly targeting Ukraine's energy infrastructure.

Over this period, the Air Force's air surveillance troops detected 287 Russian airborne attack assets, including 94 missiles and 193 UAVs.

DTEK, the largest private energy company in Ukraine, reported that the Russian attack caused serious damage to thermal power plants (TPPs). Ukrainian authorities said that Russian strikes had targeted energy facilities and critical infrastructure in Kyiv, Odesa, Chernihiv, Vinnytsia, Ivano-Frankivsk, Lviv and Ternopil oblasts.

Increased rolling power outages were also introduced across much of the country following the attack.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said that five of the nine nuclear reactors in the Ukraine-controlled territory had reduced their capacity due to Russian strikes. Two were already producing power at reduced capacity due to the residual effects of Russian strikes in late November 2024, and the remaining three returned to full capacity on 13 December.

Quote from the ISW: "Russia's strike series targeting Ukrainian energy facilities is part of a broader campaign aimed at freezing out Ukraine in Winter 2024-2025 and compelling Ukraine and the West to self-deter into making policy decisions that benefit Russia."

Details: Russia has repeatedly attacked Ukrainian infrastructure throughout the autumn and winter seasons since the start of the full-scale invasion in 2022 and has carried out large-scale strikes against Ukrainian infrastructure this year as well, including the attacks on the nights of 16-17 and 25-26 November.

Quote from the ISW: "The Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) claimed that Russian forces conducted the 12-13 December strike in retribution for a Ukrainian strike against Taganrog, Rostov Oblast on 11 December using Western-provided ATACMS, although Russian forces were likely planned to conduct such a strike regardless and are conveniently using the 11 December strike to justify ongoing Russian strikes against Ukrainian critical infrastructure."

More details: Analysts noted that this Russian message was likely aimed at calming calls from Russia's ultranationalist community for retaliation for Ukrainian strikes on Russia and was intended to support the Kremlin's reflexive control campaign to force Western countries to make decisions about Ukraine's use of Western-supplied weapons and future peace talks on terms favourable to Russia.

Experts added that Ukrainian strikes on military airfields in Russia and Russian air defence systems in the near rear areas could lead to a reduction in the number of Russian air operations and glide bomb strikes on Ukraine.

Indeed, the experts believe that the threat of Ukrainian strikes on Russian airfields with ATACMS and Storm Shadow could force the Russian military to base aircraft at airfields further inland and hamper Russia's ability to strike Ukraine with bombs.

Nonetheless, the targeted campaign of strikes on Russian air defences is intended to degrade them, especially over the occupied part of Ukraine, in order to reduce Russian bombing of frontline areas and rear Ukrainian settlements.

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 13 December:  

• Russian forces conducted their largest series of missile and drone strikes against Ukraine since the start of the war on the night of 12-13 December, largely targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure.
• Russia's strike series targeting Ukrainian energy facilities is part of a broader campaign aimed at freezing out Ukraine in Winter 2024-2025 and compelling Ukraine and the West to self-deter into making policy decisions that benefit Russia.
• Ukrainian strikes against military airfields in Russia and Russian air defence systems in near rear areas may be prompting a decrease in Russian air operations and glide bomb strikes against Ukraine.
• Russia is evacuating elements of its force grouping in Syria while continuing negotiations with select Syrian groups about Russia's longer-term military presence in the country.
• The status of Russia's helicopter base at Qamishli in northeastern Syria remains unclear, however.
• The US Department of Defense (DoD) announced on 12 December a new military aid package for Ukraine valued at US$500 million.
• A Russian insider source who has previously correctly predicted command changes within the Russian military responded to recent claims that the Russian military command removed 3rd Combined Arms Army (formerly 2nd Luhansk People's Republic Army Corps) commander Major General Dmitry Ovcharov.
• Russian forces recently advanced near Pokrovsk and Vuhledar. 

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