UK intelligence identifies key Russian target after Assad regime's fall in Syria

UK intelligence predicts that Russia will attempt to maintain control over its military bases in Syria after the fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime.

Source: UK Defence Intelligence update dated 13 December on X (Twitter), as reported by European Pravda

Details: The update notes that the Kremlin believes that the overthrow of Assad, its key ally, will harm both its regional strategic interests and "its image as a security guarantor".

At the same time, the update states that Russia's prioritisation of the war in Ukraine has likely impaired its ability and capacity to maintain the Assad regime in power.

UK intelligence has noted that Russia’s primary goal in Syria is to maintain control over its military bases – its largest overseas base in Tartus and the airbase in Khmeimim – to secure access to strategic assets in the Middle East and the Mediterranean. This enables Russia to support its objectives in Africa and project military power.

The collapse of the Assad regime has almost certainly increased the security risk to these facilities, UK intelligence added.

"In the short term, Russia will highly likely seek to repair its reputation as a reliable partner and engage diplomatically with all relevant actors involved, in efforts to ensure security guarantees for its military bases," the update concluded.

Background:

• Earlier, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte stated that Russia and Iran were accomplices in the crimes committed by ousted Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, adding that his downfall revealed them to be "unreliable partners".
• In addition, after the fall of the Assad regime, there were opinions in Europe that Vladimir Putin's power could one day "crumble" just as suddenly.

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