China assists Kremlin in legitimising seizure of Ukrainian territories – ISW

Dmitry Medvedev, former President of Russia and Deputy Chairman of Russia's Security Council, met with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing on 12 December. During the talks, the Russian delegation once again voiced its ultimatum demands to Ukraine, with China providing a platform for their dissemination under the guise of advocating for peace.

Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW)

Details: Analysts at the ISW noted in a report dated 12 December that Xi Jinping continues to echo the Kremlin's rhetoric, which is justifying aggression against Ukraine and advocating for Ukraine's surrender.

During the talks, Xi Jinping reiterated China's usual position on the war in Ukraine, calling for "de-escalation" and promoting the Sino-Brazilian "Friends of Peace" initiative, which effectively serves as a means of supporting Russia.

Medvedev, in turn, claimed that Russia was ready to negotiate with Ukraine, but only if the Ukrainian government recognised that "Ukraine understands the realities that have developed ... on the ground" – effectively demanding Ukraine's de facto surrender to Russia.

Quite: "Medvedev explicitly invoked Russian President Vladimir Putin's June 14, 2024 speech at the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA), wherein Putin stated that Ukrainian forces must 'completely withdraw' from Ukrainian-controlled territory in Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson oblasts before Russia would agree to enter into negotiations.

Russia's version of 'negotiations' that take into account the 'realities on the ground' call for Ukraine to surrender nearly 20 per cent of its territory and millions of its people living under Russian occupation."

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 12 December:

• Russia has reportedly reached an agreement with select elements of the Syrian opposition about control over Russian military bases in Syria, but it remains unclear if the alleged agreement ensures the security of Russia's bases in Syria in the long term.
• Russia is reportedly moving four ships from Russian ports to Syria, possibly to facilitate evacuations – further demonstrating the Kremlin's current cautious response to the developing situation in Syria.
• Ukrainian officials denied Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's claim that Ukraine rejected his offer to mediate a Christmas ceasefire and a large-scale prisoner of war (POW) exchange with Russia.
• People's Republic of China (PRC) President Xi Jinping continues to provide Kremlin officials with a platform from which to articulate their uncompromising demands on Ukrainian sovereignty.
• India continues to preserve and enhance its economic relations with Russia despite recent efforts to reduce its reliance on Russia as a security partner.
• Russian authorities are set to equate the violation of Russian censorship laws with extremism and terrorism, furthering the Kremlin's effort to establish a pseudo-state ideology.
• Russian President [sic] Vladimir Putin awarded the Russian "Golden Star" Medal to a military correspondent for the first time since World War II as the Kremlin continues to use state awards to co-opt milbloggers and gain control over the Russian information space.
• Actors affiliated with Ukraine’s Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) likely assassinated the Deputy General Designer and Functional Software Department Head of the Russian Rosatom-owned "Mars" design bureau Mikhail Shatsky in Russia on 12 December.
• Russian forces recently advanced in the main Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast and in the Chasiv Yar, Pokrovsk, and Kurakhove directions.
• Ukrainian forces recently regained lost positions near Svatove.
• The Russian military command's efforts to ensure operational security amongst Russian forces continue to draw ire from select milbloggers, who derided these efforts as disruptive overreach.

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