ISW says Russian drone operations may slow down

The analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) believe that the Russian Ministry of Defence's attempts to consolidate control over Russia's unofficial drone units could temporarily slow down Russia's drone operations.

Source: ISW

Details: The Russian Ministry of Defence's (MoD) attempts to centralise control over unofficial Russian drone operation units could reduce the effectiveness of Russian drone capabilities. 

Russian opposition media outlet Vazhnye Istorii (iStories) reported complaints from Russian milbloggers who stated that military command is disbanding unofficial drone units and assigning skilled drone operators to infantry assaults, leading to high casualties among these operators. 

Some milbloggers noted that military command prioritises attritional, infantry-led cannon fodder assaults and lacks sufficient manpower to sustain them, observing that some companies consist of 90 people, of whom only 20 are regular assault personnel, with the rest serving as unofficial drone operators, communication specialists or evacuation support for casualties. 

However, some milbloggers attributed the shift to the Russian MoD’s recent creation of "joint technical drone battalions" and the Rubikon Center of Advanced Unmanned Technologies.

Milbloggers also criticised the MoD’s plans to establish separate, specialised drone battalions, pointing to the lack of a unified Russian communications system to enable close coordination between dedicated drone and assault units. 

They further noted that the MoD would require significant time to establish communication links between the new centralised drone units and assault units, potentially causing temporary gaps in drone coverage for Russian assault teams. 

ISW noted that the reduction in drone specialists may also, at least for now, hinder Russian drone operations if centralisation efforts continue.

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 3 November:

• Incumbent Moldova President Maia Sandu has claimed victory in the Moldovan presidential runoff election held on 3 November, 2024.
• Moldovan authorities reported extensive Russian interference and sabotage efforts during the runoff presidential elections held on 3 November, 2024, in a likely effort to favour pro-Kremlin Stoianoglo.
• The Russian Ministry of Defence's (MoD) efforts to centralise control over informal Russian drone operation units may degrade the effectiveness of Russian drone capabilities.
• Ukrainian Human Rights Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets refuted a Russian information operation about prisoner of war (POW) exchanges aimed at destabilising Ukrainian society and undermining Ukrainians' trust in their government.
• Russian forces recently advanced on the Siversk, Pokrovsk, Kurakhove and Vuhledar fronts in Donetsk Oblast.
• A Ukrainian official reported that Russian naval infantry units cannot be considered "elite" due to a lack of specialised training for new recruits and because Ukrainian forces have destroyed the main core of the Russian professional army since the start of the Russian full-scale invasion.

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