Putin is unlikely to negotiate, whoever wins in United States – CNN

Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin is unlikely to sit at the negotiating table to end the war in Ukraine, regardless of who wins the US election.

Source: CNN

Details: According to observers, American policy is at a crossroads, but this will not inevitably lead to a watershed moment in peace talks, because there has been no indication that Russia is willing to negotiate, regardless of who is in the White House.

Thomas Graham, an expert on Russian foreign policy and honorary member of the Council on Foreign Relations, told CNN that under any conceivable US president, Putin would try to exploit what he regards as political dysfunction in the US, as well as "cracks in Western unity".

These breaches may occur as a result of the Trump administration's diminution of US assistance and position in NATO, as well as a divide in the US Congress. Financial pressure on European allies is also a factor, as are fissures in NATO with pro-Russian authorities in countries such as Hungary and Slovakia.

Quote: "Absent Western unity, absent a clear demonstration that the West and Ukraine have a common vision of what they’re trying to achieve… Putin has no reason to reconsider what he is doing in Ukraine at this point," Graham added.

CNN quoted analysts as saying that the scope of the war is also too enormous for simple negotiations between Moscow and Kyiv; this is a far broader confrontation between Russia and the West.

According to John Lough, an associate researcher at the Chatham House think tank's Russia and Eurasia Programme, "Ukraine is just a means to an end, and the end is to further limit US influence in international affairs".

"When [Trump's] advisers explain to him what's really going on here and the fact that China has played a key role in sustaining Russia's ability to continue fighting this war… he may feel suddenly very strongly that he's not so well disposed to Putin," Lough said. He added that Beijing will interpret any compromises "as a further indication of US weakness".

CNN notes that Ukraine is already weary, and Putin appears willing to endure a huge number of casualties. If a future Trump administration eliminates US funding, Ukraine will be more disadvantaged.

Even if US policy continues on its current path, Kyiv's Western partners appear unwilling to offer the resources required to gain big battlefield victories.

Background: According to The Washington Post, Russia is quietly rooting for the victory of Donald Trump in the US elections, but his plans to end the war in Ukraine may be unacceptable for the Russian Federation.

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