Trump's plan to end war in Ukraine may be unacceptable for Putin – WP

Russia is quietly rooting for the victory of Donald Trump in the US elections, but his plans to end the war in Ukraine may be unacceptable for the Russian Federation.

Source: The Washington Post

Details: According to the WP, Russia is pretending to be unconcerned about the US elections while secretly supporting Donald Trump. At the same time, while Trump's worldwide agenda is more in line with the Kremlin's preferences, his plans to end the war in Ukraine may not be acceptable to Russian leader Vladimir Putin.

According to claims made by US authorities and data obtained by The Washington Post, the Kremlin and Russian military intelligence have conducted numerous disinformation efforts against Harris and her running mate Tim Walz, and have also questioned the validity of the election results.

The publication argues that the Kremlin is attempting to weaken western support for Ukraine, and Trump's candidature aligns with Moscow's strategy, as he has consistently criticised American aid to Ukraine.

However, in Moscow, the tone remains "more muted and pointedly nonchalant than in past election years". The publication recalls that in 2016, the Russian Duma erupted in applause after Trump was declared the winner of the election, conservative activists organised election parties in Moscow, and Russian propagandists declared Trump's victory a new era for US-Russian relations, while Putin congratulated Trump on his victory, expressing hope that he would cooperate with him to help "lead Russian-American relations out of their current state of crisis". However, ties have deteriorated over the last eight years, particularly after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, according to the WP.

Few in Moscow believe Trump can make a complete turn in relations, especially after how little changed during his first term.

"Of course they want Trump – that’s clear – but the result of this election will not be a game changer for Russia. The situation has become truly terrible. US-Russian relations are in deadlock. And everyone is a hostage of it – even Putin," said a former Kremlin official who still works in government circles and spoke on condition of anonymity.

Nonetheless, there is a growing hope among the Russian elite that Trump will win, and if he does, that there will be an opportunity to finish the war in Ukraine on Moscow's terms, potentially redrawing the map of global security.

Sergei Markov, a Kremlin-linked political expert, stated that he not only expected Trump to win, but that "on 7 November, I expect Trump to call Putin and Zelenskyy and propose an end to the military action".

At the same time, the publication cautions that Trump's triumph may represent a risk to Russia, as it is unknown whether Putin will accept any compromise suggested by Trump to stop the war, potentially leading to antagonism between the two.

"There could be a window of opportunity, but it is very narrow and very fragile," said Tatyana Stanovaya, a senior researcher at the Carnegie Russia-Eurasia Center.

JD Vance, the Republican nominee for vice president, has offered a plan in which Russia would keep the land it has occupied while establishing a demilitarised buffer zone along the current front line. He also stated that Ukraine would have to accept neutrality.

Two former Trump advisers, Fred Fleitz and retired Lieutenant General Keith Kellogg, have also offered a strategy that includes a temporary ceasefire along the current line of contact, with Ukraine receiving additional Western weapons only if it engages in peace talks with Russia.

Though these ideas have received considerable criticism for turning over Ukrainian territory to Russia, observers say it is unclear whether Russia will accept those terms.

"For Putin, this is a very bad scenario. Putin doesn’t want territory. He wants Ukraine," Stanovaya said. 

She predicts a series of meetings and discussions between Russia and the United States on Ukraine that will eventually come to a standstill. "Trump is never going to propose to Putin what he wants in Ukraine", she said.

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