Putin uses Kazakhstan to evade sanctions – ISW

Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have indicated that Russian leader Vladimir Putin intends to continue using Kazakhstan to facilitate sanctions evasion schemes.

Source: ISW

Details: Putin and Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev met in Astana on 27 November and signed a joint statement on deepening the Russian-Kazakh strategic partnership as part of Russia's efforts to establish a "new world order".

Putin and Tokayev signed 19 other documents expanding Russian-Kazakh political, economic, energy, and transit cooperation.

Quote from ISW: "The Kremlin likely intends to deepen economic and transit relations with Kazakhstan, in part, to continue to leverage Kazakhstan as key intermediary to facilitate sanctions evasion schemes."

Details: Putin also published an article in the Kazakh state-run newspaper Kazakhstanskaya Pravda on 27 November in which he emphasised the strength of Russia-Kazakhstan relations, much in the same style as previous articles Putin has published in other states' state newspapers during bilateral visits.

Putin and Tokayev also agreed to expand Russian educational and Russian language institutions in Kazakhstan, likely as part of an ongoing effort to expand the influence of Russian soft power in countries formerly colonised by the Russian Empire and the Soviet Union.

Quote from ISW: "Putin notably did not mention the war in Ukraine in his article, during his meeting with Tokayev, or in the package of the signed documents, likely omitting any mention of the war in order to posture Russia as an economically stable and viable partner ahead of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) summit in Astana on 28 November."

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 27 November:

• Ukrainian forces continue to leverage Western-provided weapons to conduct strikes using more complex strike packages against military objects in Russia's deep rear.
• Russian leader Vladimir Putin and Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev met in Astana on 27 November and signed a joint statement deepening the Russian-Kazakh strategic partnership within the framework of Russia's efforts to establish a "new world order."
• The Russian military command may have imposed controversial restrictions on the use of personal vehicles by Russian volunteers delivering military and humanitarian aid to Russian troops on the front lines, likely as part of an ongoing force centralisation effort.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced within Toretsk, and Russian forces recently advanced on the Pokrovsk and Kurakhove fronts, and within the main Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast.
• The Kremlin continues to promote the "Time of Heroes" programme that aims to militarise the Russian government at the local, regional, and federal levels as a way to prevent the return of "Afghan syndrome" in Russia.

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