UK Defence Intelligence assesses Russian Black Sea Fleet condition in third year of full-scale invasion

The UK Defence Intelligence has noted that Ukraine's successful actions against the Russian Black Sea Fleet have led to the destruction of about a quarter of its large vessels, including its flagship, the Moskva cruiser, and forced the fleet to withdraw into the eastern part of the water area. However, the fleet still plays a major role in supporting ground operations.

Source: European Pravda citing the UK Ministry of Defence's review of the Russian-Ukrainian war of 20 November

Details: The intelligence notes that before the outbreak of full-scale war, Russia almost certainly considered the Black Sea Fleet to be part of its strategic maritime capabilities, and over the three years of the war, the fleet suffered considerable losses due to Ukraine's successful operations.

The Russian Black Sea Fleet had a significant advantage over the Ukrainian Navy before the full-scale war, but since 24 February 2022, Ukraine has destroyed or severely damaged about 25% of the large warships that Russia had deployed to the Black Sea, including sinking the Moskva cruiser, which boasted of its air defence capabilities. 

Following Ukraine's actions, the Russian Black Sea Fleet had to move all its most important vessels from their original base in occupied Sevastopol to Novorossiysk and adapt its activities accordingly, intelligence reports.

"Despite Russia's Black Sea Fleet currently being limited to the Eastern Black Sea, it retains the ability to conduct long range strikes into Ukraine in support of land operations," the review notes. 

Background:

• One of the previous reviews noted that in October, Russia's average daily losses of personnel at the battlefield were record-breaking. 
• The UK intelligence also noted the growing pressure of Russian forces on Kupiansk in Kharkiv Oblast.

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