Combat actions in Ukraine could stop in 2025 – The Economist

The Economist believes that Ukraine and Russia may begin negotiations in 2025 under pressure from the United States and the lack of the necessary weapons and funding. It is assumed that at this time, the fighting will subside and a "semi-frozen conflict" may emerge.

Source: The Economist

Quote: "2025 could be the year in which the fighting largely comes to an end. Both sides are close to exhaustion, and the backers of each would prefer the conflict to wind down. In Washington this will be a priority for Donald Trump’s new administration."

Details: In early 2024, a struggle in the US Congress led to a halt in US funding for Ukraine for several months. The US$61 billion package, which was finally approved, will also be exhausted around 2025.

In addition, the US is running out of military equipment it sends to Ukraine and needs to think about other partners, especially Israel and Taiwan.

Supply constraints are even worse in Europe, where governments have done too little to expand defence production to meet Ukraine's needs.

It is noted that Ukraine itself has an increasingly impressive defence industry, especially in the production of drones, but will find it difficult to fill the gap as Western supplies dwindle.

This means that after the US presidential election, Russia's pressure on Ukraine will increase significantly in 2025 to enter into some form of negotiations with it.

The Economist suggested that as part of a possible deal, Ukraine will have to accept the loss of part of its territory: "The 7% that Russia seized in its first invasion in 2014 (the Crimea and eastern Donbas) is surely unrecoverable. Any settlement will probably also involve Russia holding on to some or most of the additional 11% that it now controls since the 2022 invasion."

In return, Ukraine should receive credible security guarantees, ideally full NATO membership: "That would probably constitute an acceptable solution in Kyiv, painful though it will be for Ukraine to swallow."

With Trump back in power, it seems likely that Ukraine will not join NATO for years, if ever; but it could still receive at least some form of security guarantee.

Nevertheless, it now seems very likely that discussions on negotiations will begin in 2025, and when they do, the fighting could abruptly subside, even to the point of a ceasefire: "While talks grind on, a semi-frozen conflict might arise."

Read also: From Zelenskyy's "surrender" to Putin's surrender: how the negotiations with Russia are going

Before and after the counteroffensive: Are there perspectives in peace negotiations with Russia?

Background:

• Russian officials said that Russian ruler Vladimir Putin was open to discussing a ceasefire agreement in Ukraine with Donald Trump, but he ruled out the liberation of territories and insisted that Ukraine abandon the idea of NATO membership.
• President Volodymyr Zelenskyy expects support from US President-elect Donald Trump in the event of talks between Kyiv and Moscow regarding the war, and he said a "strong Ukraine" would be the foundation of those talks.
• In April 2022, Russia effectively upset peace talks with Ukraine when it included a clause in the draft treaty stating that it would have a veto over the international community’s response in the event of a repeated attack on Ukraine.

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