Russians use capture of Vuhledar for further offensive – ISW

The Institute for the Study of War analysts point out that Russian troops are using the capture of Vuhledar to further their offensive and to level the line of contact by eliminating the Ukrainian advance in the western part of Donetsk Oblast.

Source: ISW

Details: Russian forces have been effectively utilising their recent capture of Vuhledar to achieve tactically crucial gains south of Kurakhove, supporting ongoing Russian offensive operations that seek to align the frontline and eliminate the Ukrainian salient in western Donetsk Oblast. 

Russian forces ramped up offensive actions in western Donetsk Oblast in early September 2024, now aiming to encircle Kurakhove from the north and south and align the line of contact between Sontsivka (northwest of Kurakhove) and Shakhtarske (northwest of Vuhledar).

Analysts note that further Russian advancements into Dalne and westward could compel Ukrainian forces to pull back from positions in the pocket north and northeast of Vuhledar, enabling Russian forces to advance along the C051104 motorway with minimal resistance.

Such progress would allow Russian forces to intensify pressure on Ukrainian positions in Kurakhove from the south. 

ISW has revised its prior assessment that Russian forces would be unlikely to exploit the capture of Vuhledar for further offensive operations in western Donetsk Oblast, acknowledging that this assessment was mistaken.

Russian forces also continued their advances in other areas of the Kurakhove and Vuhledar fronts on 10-11 November.

Russian advances persist along the border of Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts, with movements northwest of Vuhledar and south of Velyka Novosilka potentially increasing pressure on Ukrainian positions in Velyka Novosilka.

Russian forces have progressed in western Donetsk Oblast at a steady pace; however, they are still unlikely to achieve the rapid mechanised manoeuvres needed to successfully encircle Ukrainian forces.

Ukrainian and Russian sources reported on 11 November that damage to the dam at the Kurakhove Reservoir is causing localised flooding in nearby settlements.

Ukrainian and Russian sources diverged on who was responsible for the dam damage, though Russian forces reportedly struck the dam in September 2024. 

Russian forces may have targeted the dam to induce extensive, persistent flooding west of Kurakhove Reservoir, potentially aiding Russian efforts to encircle Ukrainian forces north and south of Kurakhove.

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 11 November:

• Russian forces are successfully leveraging their recent seizure of Vuhledar to make tactically significant gains south of Kurakhove in support of ongoing Russian offensive operations that aim to level the frontline and eliminate the Ukrainian salient in western Donetsk Oblast.
• ISW is revising its previous assessment that Russian forces would not likely be able to take advantage of the seizure of Vuhledar for further offensive operations in western Donetsk Oblast. That assessment was incorrect.
• Russian forces reportedly continue to advance in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and Russian advances northwest of Vuhledar and south of Velyka Novosilka may begin to pressure Ukrainian positions in Velyka Novosilka.
• Russian forces have advanced in western Donetsk Oblast at a moderate tempo, but Russian forces remain highly unlikely to be able to conduct rapid mechanised manoeuvres that could successfully encircle Ukrainian forces.
• Ukrainian and Russian sources stated on 11 November that damage to a dam of the Kurakhove Reservoir is causing limited flooding in nearby settlements.
• Ukrainian and Russian sources disagreed about who was responsible for damaging the dam, but Russian forces reportedly struck the dam in September 2024.
• Russian forces may have struck the dam in order to cause significant, long-lasting flooding west of Kurakhivske Reservoir that could facilitate Russian efforts to envelop Ukrainian forces north and south of Kurakhove.
• Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov denied on 11 November reports of a recent phone conversation between Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President-elect Donald Trump.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced in Kursk Oblast. Russian forces recently advanced in Kursk Oblast and near Kreminna and Kurakhove.
• Russian regional governments continue to commit large portions of their social budgets towards payments to Russian veterans, likely as part of ongoing efforts to incentivise Russian military service.

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