50,000 Russian and North Korean soldiers preparing for large-scale offensive in Kursk Oblast – NYT

The New York Times has reported that 50,000 Russian and North Korean soldiers are preparing to launch a large-scale counteroffensive in Russia’s Kursk Oblast.

Source: The New York Times, citing Ukrainian and US officials

Details: According to US officials, Russian troops are carrying out missile strikes on Ukrainian positions in Kursk Oblast and deploying artillery against them, but they have not yet launched a large-scale offensive.

Ukrainian officials said they expect a large-scale attack involving North Korean troops in the coming days.

North Korean troops are currently training with Russian forces in the west of Kursk Oblast.

The NYT reported that some US military and intelligence officials have become more pessimistic about Ukraine’s overall prospects, noting that Russia is steadily gaining ground in both Kursk Oblast and eastern Ukraine. Officials say these setbacks are partly the result of Ukraine’s failure to address the critical issue of a shortage of troops.

One Western official said that Ukraine’s surprise invasion of Kursk Oblast in August had weakened its forces across the battlefield in Ukraine’s east, leaving Ukrainian troops vulnerable to a Russian offensive. But the official, as well as other several US officials, said Ukraine still has strong defences in Kursk Oblast and may be able to retain control over the area they currently hold, at least for a while.

Western and Ukrainian officials said that the arrival of North Korean troops was a serious escalation after more than two years of war.

According to US officials, North Korea has sent more than 10,000 soldiers to fight alongside Russian forces in Kursk Oblast. These troops are wearing Russian uniforms and have been equipped by Moscow, but are likely to be fighting in their own separate units.

Ukrainian officials said that Moscow had supplied North Korean troops with machine guns, sniper rifles, anti-tank missiles, and rocket-propelled grenade launchers.

According to US officials, Russia has trained the North Koreans in artillery fire, basic infantry tactics, and, most importantly, trench clearing. This indicates that at least some of the North Korean forces will be engaged in frontal attacks on Ukrainian forces’ dug-in defences.

A Ukrainian official said that North Korean troops were divided into two groups, an assault group and a support group, which would help secure the territory recaptured from Ukrainian forces.

Meanwhile, US officials believe that Ukrainian troops will be difficult to dislodge, and that Russian and North Korean forces are likely to suffer heavy losses similar to those Russia has suffered in Ukraine’s east. US and British military analysts estimate the current number of Russian troops killed and wounded at an average of more than 1,200 per day.

The North Koreans will fight as light infantry, without the use of armoured vehicles. And the current Ukrainian tactics of artillery shelling and drone attacks have proven devastating for unprotected Russian troops, the NYT reported.

Nevertheless, if Russia gains momentum, it may not stop at its border, but try to push Ukrainian troops even further. According to representatives of the US Department of Defense, it is unclear whether the North Korean government will authorise its troops to conduct long-term operations in Ukraine or whether they are intended only for a counteroffensive in Kursk Oblast. Some US officials believe that North Korea may order its troops to stop at the border while Russian forces advance deeper into Ukraine.

US defence officials also said they did not know whether North Korea would send additional reinforcements. According to a senior Ukrainian official, Ukrainian intelligence predicted that North Korea could send up to 100,000 troops.

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