Russian forces cannot endure significant losses indefinitely for sake of limited victories – ISW

Russian forces are suffering heavy casualties on the battlefield, posing a threat to further military operations. The mood among the ultra-nationalist community of military bloggers (milbloggers) is deteriorating due to infantry-led "meat assaults" and ineffective tactics of the Russian command.

Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW)

Details: Analysts previously reported that Russian troops have lost the equivalent of five divisions in armoured vehicles and tanks on the Pokrovsk front since October 2023. Even though Russian forces appear to have concentrated substantial equipment in key frontline areas, the shrinking reserves of Soviet-era tanks and armoured vehicles, coupled with current production rates, are likely to make these losses unsustainable in the long term.

US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin reported on 31 October that Russia has been sustaining daily losses of over 1,200 troops, amounting to approximately 36,000 each month.

ISW has noted signs that the Russian military is finding it increasingly difficult to recruit enough soldiers to backfill its losses on the battlefield. Russian leader Vladimir Putin acknowledged the ongoing labour shortage and reliance on migrants to meet this challenge during his speech at the Valdai Club on 7 September. ISW also notes that Russia is forcing migrants to join the military.

Quote: "The Russian military almost certainly cannot indefinitely sustain a daily casualty rate of over 1,200 people so long as Putin remains committed to avoiding another involuntary call-up of reservists. Even an involuntary reserve mobilisation will not resolve the larger problem Putin apparently faces in finding enough people to work in Russia's industries while also feeding the front."

Details: Some Russian military bloggers continue to express frustration over the disproportionately high personnel losses. This mounting discontent among the ultra-nationalist milblogger community could impact Putin's future decisions. On 8 November, a former Russian instructor for the Storm-Z unit and a milblogger complained that it takes at least six months to properly train assault troops but that the Russian command treats them as cannon fodder, with their primary role being to "catch drones [and] shrapnel".

The blogger argued that Russian infantry casualties are too high due to the tactics of successive attacks by small assault groups, which he called "stupid" and "improperly organised". He concluded that Russian successes "do not seem proportionate to the irretrievably spent resources – human and material".

The ISW reports that Russia's milblogger community has recently criticised the deaths of drone operators who were sent on assault missions as punishment by their commanders. Analysts highlight that the continued deployment of Russian soldiers in meat-grinder assaults has not led to meaningful success on the battlefield. This strategy is likely to fuel further resentment among milbloggers, whose views seem to be particularly important to the Kremlin.

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 9 November: 

• Russian forces reportedly lost almost 200 tanks, over 650 armoured vehicles, and suffered an estimated 80,000 casualties in taking roughly 1,500 square kilometres during a period of intensified Russian offensive operations in September and October 2024.
• Russian forces will eventually make operationally significant gains if Ukrainian forces do not stop ongoing Russian offensive operations, but the Russian military cannot sustain such loss rates indefinitely, especially not for such limited gains.
• Ukrainian forces conducted drone strikes on the Aleksin Chemical Plant in Tula Oblast on the night of 8-9 November.
• Russian authorities are reportedly considering merging Russia's three largest oil companies – Rosneft, Gazprom Neft, and Lukoil, likely to help Russia reach more advantageous energy deals with non-Western states.
• Russian authorities arrested a former Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) construction official for fraud on 9 November.
• The US Department of Defense (DOD) reportedly stated on 8 November that it will send a "small number" of US defence contractors to rear areas of Ukraine to repair US-provided weapons and equipment.
• Ukrainian forces recently regained positions near Siversk and Pokrovsk, and Russian forces recently advanced near Kreminna, Pokrovsk, and Kurakhove.
• Ukraine's Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha stated on 9 November that Ukrainian intelligence assesses that Russia will be able to produce 30 per cent more artillery shells than all European Union (EU) countries combined in 2025 should the EU fail to implement additional measures, such as sanctions, against Russia's defence industrial base (DIB).

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