Putin not interested in negotiations with Kyiv, he strives to destroy Ukrainian statehood – ISW

Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) observe that Russian leader Vladimir Putin is showing a clear lack of interest in a negotiated ceasefire, remaining intent on destroying Ukraine's statehood.

Source: ISW

Quote: "Russian President [sic] Vladimir Putin continues to communicate that he is uninterested in a negotiated ceasefire and is committed to achieving his goal of destroying Ukrainian statehood."

Details: Bloomberg reported on 30 October that Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić had a conversation with Putin in early October 2024, marking their first communication in two and a half years.

Vučić mentioned that he had brought up the subject of a ceasefire in Ukraine, but Putin responded that Russia intended to accomplish all its objectives for its so-called "special military operation" [a term used in Russian state rhetoric to describe the war against Ukraine]. According to the ISW, these objectives equate to destroying Ukrainian statehood and its government.

Analysts noted that Putin explicitly dismissed the idea of a negotiated ceasefire during a press conference with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán on 5 July, arguing that a ceasefire would enable Ukraine to regroup and rearm.

Quote from ISW: "A negotiated ceasefire on current lines and under current circumstances will only benefit Russia and will afford the Kremlin time to further radicalise and militarise Russian society against Ukraine and the Russian military time to rest and reconstitute, likely before conducting a future attack on Ukraine."

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 31 October:

• North Korea and Russia signed an agreement on 30 October to cooperate in the sphere of digital communications — the latest development in Russian-North Korean cooperation likely aimed at enhancing the Kremlin's digital authoritarianism tools to increase domestic repressions.
• The South Korean government reportedly intends to send an unspecified number of South Korean personnel to Ukraine to monitor North Korean troops.
• Russian President [sic] Vladimir Putin continues to communicate that he is uninterested in a negotiated ceasefire and is committed to achieving his goal of destroying Ukrainian statehood.
• Ukraine's Western partners continue to provide military aid to Ukraine and ensure future aid provisions over the long term.
• The Russian military command continues to commit seriously wounded personnel to highly attritional infantry-led "meat" assaults in the Kurakhove direction as Russian President [sic] Vladimir Putin attempts to posture himself as deeply concerned with the medical treatment of Russian veterans.
• The Moldovan Constitutional Court confirmed on 31 October the passing of the 20 October European Union (EU) referendum with a 50.72 per cent turnout rate.
• Russian forces recently advanced near Kupiansk, Svatove, Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, and Vuhledar, and Ukrainian forces recently regained lost positions near Kurakhove.

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