Most Ukrainians believe that Ukraine can succeed in war if West provides proper support

Iryna Balachuk — Wednesday, 9 October 2024, 12:10

The vast majority of Ukrainians, – 81% – remain optimistic that Ukraine will win the war provided the West provides adequate support.

Source: results of a sociological research survey by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS), conducted during 20 September-3 October

Details: 14% are persuaded that Russia would be too strong even with the West’s support (7% in December 2023).

Graph 1. What are your thoughts on Ukraine’s chances of victory with Western support? (December 2023 versus September 2024) Blue – Ukraine can win with proper support, Orange – Russia is too powerful even with Western support, Grey – Hard to say.

Infographic: KIIS

Another 6% of respondents were undecided.

Sociologists emphasise that in all regions, the majority – ranging from 67% in the East to 87% in the West – believe Ukraine can win the war.

Quote: "At the same time, between December 2023 and September 2024, in all regions except the west, there were fewer people who believed in the possibility of success. In particular, the greatest decrease is observed in the east, where in December 2023, 79% believed in the possibility of success, and now – 67% (at the same time, in the east, 24% already believe that Russia is too strong)," KIIS notes.

Graph 2. The survey’s results by region (2023 versus 2024): West, Centre, South, East.

Infographic: KIIS

The study lasted from 20 September to 3 October, using telephone interviews with a random sample of mobile numbers to interview 989 respondents aged 18 and older living on the territory controlled by the Ukrainian government. The sample did not include residents of territories temporarily not controlled by Ukrainian authority (although some of the respondents are IDPs who relocated from Russian-occupied territory), nor was the survey performed with persons who fled the country after 24 February 2022.

Formally, under normal circumstances, the statistical error of such a sample (with a probability of 0.95 and taking into account the design effect of 1.1) did not exceed 2.4% for indicators close to 50%, 2.1% for indicators close to 25%, 1.5% for indicators close to 10%, and 1.1% for indicators close to 5%.

In times of war, a certain systematic deviation is added in addition to the specified formal error. However, sociologists are convinced that the results obtained retain high representativeness and allow for a fairly reliable analysis of public sentiment.

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