Russian marginal tactical gains come at cost of significant armoured vehicle losses – ISW

Experts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) believe that the willingness of the Russian military command to achieve limited tactical successes at the cost of significant armoured vehicle losses will become increasingly costly due to limited reserves of Soviet-era weapons and equipment.

Source: ISW

Details: Since the beginning of their offensive to capture Avdiivka in October 2023, Russian forces have reportedly lost the equivalent of at least five divisions’ worth of armoured vehicles and tanks in the Pokrovsk district. Additionally, losses continued to mount during intensified Russian operations in western Donetsk Oblast in the summer of 2024.

On 4 October, an open-source user on X (Twitter) who tracks confirmed Russian equipment losses reported that 1,830 pieces of heavy equipment have been lost in the Pokrovsk district since 9 October 2023. 

These losses are linked to the intensified four-month-long Russian offensive that began in October 2023 to capture Avdiivka, as well as the continued assaults west of Avdiivka and in areas west and southwest of the city of Donetsk in spring and summer 2024. The user's data reflects Russian vehicle losses from these operations.

Quote: "The X user’s assessment based on visually confirmed vehicle losses is likely conservative given that not all Russian vehicle losses are visually documented. The actual number of Russian vehicle losses in the Pokrovsk area is likely higher than reported."

Details: The Russian military leadership may struggle to accept the current level and pace of vehicle losses in the upcoming months and years, especially considering the limitations in Russia's defence industrial production, the dwindling stockpiles of Soviet-era vehicles and the military's inability to secure significant territorial gains through mechanised manoeuvres.

Quote: "Russian forces expended a significant number of armoured vehicles during the first weeks of their offensive effort to seize Avdiivka in October 2023 and later limited their armoured vehicle usage while fighting within Avdiivka's administrative boundaries.

Russian forces appear to have limited their armoured vehicle use in the area immediately west of Avdiivka in recent months, although Russian forces have simultaneously intensified their offensive operations west and southwest of the city of Donetsk and frequently conduct largely unsuccessful platoon- and company-sized mechanised assaults in the area."

Details: Russian forces have likely gathered a considerable amount of equipment for their assaults. However, the medium- to long-term limitations of Russia's armoured vehicle stocks and production rates, combined with increasing equipment losses, may compel the Russian military to reconsider the advantages of ramping up mechanised operations in this area versus focusing on the overall long-term strategy in the war against Ukraine.

Quote: "The Russian military command's willingness to pursue limited tactical advances in exchange for significant armoured vehicle losses will become increasingly costly as Russian forces burn through finite Soviet-era weapons and equipment stocks in the coming months and years.

Russia will likely struggle to adequately supply its units with materiel in the long term without transferring the Russian economy to a wartime footing and significantly increasing Russia's defence industrial production rates — a move that Russian leader Vladimir Putin has sought to avoid thus far."

To quote the ISW’s Key Takeaways on 6 October:

• Russian forces have reportedly lost at least five divisions’ worth of armoured vehicles and tanks in the Pokrovsk district since beginning their offensive operation to seize Avdiivka in October 2023 and during intensified Russian offensive operations in western Donetsk Oblast in summer of 2024.
• The Russian military command may not be willing or able to accept the current scale and rate of vehicle loss in the coming months and years given the constraints in Russia's defence industrial production, limits to Russia’s Soviet-era vehicle stockpiles, and the Russian military's failure to achieve operationally significant territorial advances through mechanised manoeuvre.
• Ukrainian officials continue to document and prosecute Russian war crimes committed against Ukrainian forces.
• Russian authorities reportedly arrested the administrator of the Russian Telegram channel Thirteenth, who has previously criticised the Kremlin and Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD), on 5 October.
• Russian forces recently advanced southeast of Pokrovsk.

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