Ideas of West Germany model for Ukraine's NATO accession voiced out in West – FT

Among the ideas voiced in the West as possible scenarios for ending the current hot phase of the war in Ukraine and preventing a new one is its accession to NATO on the model of West Germany, which would provide Ukraine with security guarantees and deter Russia.

Source: European Pravda; an article of Financial Times, in which the publication collected the views of unnamed diplomats and public comments about possible scenarios for ending the war and Ukraine's accession to NATO.

Details: The article notes that both in the West and more and more often in Kyiv, there is a growing belief that meaningful security guarantees from partners for Ukraine could be the basis for a certain agreement to end the current hot phase of the war. At the same time, Russia would retain the de facto control over the occupied territories, but they would continue to be considered legitimate territories of Ukraine, temporarily occupied and subject to diplomatic return in the future when the opportunity arises. 

One Western diplomat, quoted anonymously, suggested that such a temporary surrender of territory is the only possible option for Ukraine to become a NATO member. 

Former NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg hinted in an interview this week that the unfinished war and the partial occupation of Ukraine's territory do not necessarily mean that the allies will not agree to Ukraine's full membership. 

Stoltenberg recalled Japan's situation: the US guarantees provided to Japan do not cover the occupied Kuril Islands. Similarly, only West Germany was protected by NATO after it joined in 1955. 

Quote from Stoltenberg: "When there is a will, there are ways to find the solution. But you need a line which defines where Article 5 is invoked, and Ukraine has to control all the territory until that border." 

The Financial Times has noted that discussions regarding a "West German model" for Ukraine have been circulating in expert circles for over a year and a half. Notably, figures such as Dan Fried, former US Assistant Secretary of State for Europe, Kurt Volker, former US Ambassador to NATO and Donald Trump’s Special Envoy for Ukraine, have expressed such ideas, among others.

In an interview with Czech media, Czech President Petr Pavel stated that he did not believe Ukraine's regaining control over all territories within its internationally recognised borders was a prerequisite for seriously considering its NATO accession.

"If there is a demarcation, even an administrative border, then we can treat [that] as temporary and accept Ukraine into NATO in the territory it will control at that time," he said.

Mary Sarotte, an American historian and Cold War expert, supported this idea, noting that individual accession conditions were adapted for certain countries. For instance, Norway, a founding member of NATO, opted not to host Alliance bases on its territory, while West Germany was admitted with the understanding that its borders were temporary.

Consequently, Ukraine could establish a conditional border to define its defensive lines and stipulate additional conditions. These might include restrictions on the permanent deployment of allied troops and nuclear weapons, except in response to a direct threat of attack, as well as a commitment to refrain from using military force beyond this demarcation line, except in cases of self-defence.

Sarotte believes that Ukraine's "partial" accession to NATO, following the West German model, presents a feasible scenario for a conditional victory. This arrangement would grant Ukraine protection, freedom, and a chance to develop while keeping Russia isolated. This outcome is preferable to waiting for Kremlin ruler Vladimir Putin to abandon his ambitions regarding Ukraine or for Russia to achieve further military successes.

Some analysts caution against seriously considering a "West Germany model" for Ukraine, arguing that, unlike in the past when borders were recognised by both parties, the current situation sees daily shifts in the front line. Both Ukraine and Russia remain inclined to alter the status quo, and some of the more cautious members of the Alliance may still be reluctant to extend Article 5 guarantees to Ukraine.

Background: During his inaugural press conference as NATO Secretary General on 1 October, Mark Rutte refrained from speculating on when Ukraine might receive an invitation to join the alliance.

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